RENEWABLES: UK Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 93.51 High Feb 26                   
• PRICE: 93.43 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 92.72 Low Feb 25                                   
• SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24   
• SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21  

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract traded higher last week and attention is on resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a climb towards 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On  the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, Feb 20 low. A break of it would highlight a bear threat.

• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli and ObliEi auction. On offer will be the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43) alongside the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67) and the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012C12). The amount on offer will be announced this afternoon.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold a LT OAT auction. On offer will be E11-13bln of the 4.75% Apr-35 OAT (ISIN: FR0010070060), the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5), the 1.75% Jun-39 Green OAT (ISIN: FR0013234333) and the on-the-run 20-year 2.50% May-43 OAT (ISIN: FR001400CMX2)
• To conclude the week on Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI operation. Details will be announced the preceding day.

NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees redemptions of E35.8bln of which E23.4bln is from a formerly 15-year BTP, E11.8bln is from a formerly 10-year OATi and E0.7bln from a formerly 5-year CROATE. Coupon payments for the week total E9.4bln of which E8.2bln are Italian, E0.5bln are from EU-bonds and E0.2bln are Slovakian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E2.5bln, versus positive E14.4bln last week.

Austria, Germany, Spain and France are all due to hold conventional auctions in the upcoming week, the Netherlands is scheduled to hold a DDA and Belgium an ORI auction. We also pencil in possible syndications from Italy and Germany (and potentially Belgium). We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E42.7bln, up from E35.4bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.

• Tomorrow, the Netherlands will hold a DDA to sell E4.0-6.0bln of the new 10-year 2.50% Jul-35 DSL (ISIN: NL0015002F72). The initial spread guidance will be announced today.
• Also tomorrow, Austria will hold an RAGB auction. On offer will be a combined E2.0125bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25) alongside the on-the-run 30-year 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7). Note that the 10-year reopening will be the first following its syndicated launch in January.
• Germany, also tomorrow, will sell E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042).