FINANCIALS: UK Pension Changes May Be Negative For UK Insurance Credits (2)

Central Bank of Cyprus Governor Chistodoulos Patsalides speaks to MNI--On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

• A 25bp move lower in 10-year treasury yields over the last week has weighed significantly on USDCHF (-0.53%), which printed a fresh 2-month low at 0.8912 in recent trade. Treasury options flow points to a continuation of the trend for US yields and wider risk concerns are highlighting the short-term vulnerabilities for major equity indices, both posing risks for a deeper correction lower for the pair.
• US sentiment surveys have surprised to the downside consecutively during the last weeks, bolstering the chances of further Fed rate cuts this year. Combined with US tariff threats becoming more concrete, headwinds for both the dollar and global sentiment have been building.
• In recent sessions, both 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages have moved into a bear-mode for USDCHF, signalling scope for further downside. Support levels remain scant, with Fibonacci retracement points (drawn from 2024 low – 2025 high) at 0.8885 and 0.8788, the immediate technical levels of note.
• A set of US data including PCE, the second reading of Q4 GDP, and weekly claims on Thursday could well provide some new input for the pair, whereas Friday's Swiss final GDP will be unlikely to move the needle.

The Dallas Fed's Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey mirrored its manufacturing counterpart in direction if not in magnitude, with current activity and expectations pulling back in February. 

• The index of current  general activity fell to a 4-month low 4.6 from 7.4 prior (and well off the 33-month high 10.8 in December), while the 6-month outlook dropped to 12.3 from January's 39-month high 31.2.
• To be sure, these readings are still higher compared with 2023-24 levels.
• But it seems clear that government policy risks including on tariffs are weighing (the outlook uncertainty index jumped to 14.2 from 3.0 prior).
• While some of the anecdotal comments accompanying the survey (part of a "special question" about how trade policy uncertainty and tariffs were impacting business) were positive about economic prospects under the new presidential administration, the vast majority were negative including on tariffs, immigration, and federal funding.