AUSTRALIA: Underlying Inflation Measures Signalling Easing Price Pressures

Gold is little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.6% lower at $2606.50 on Monday. 

• Gold is on track for one of its most significant annual gains this century, rising 26% amid a combination of persistent geopolitical risks and a surge in central bank purchases.
• Lower interest rates have also been a key driver, as gold — being a non-yielding asset — becomes more attractive in such an environment.
• While bullion has edged lower since Donald Trump’s decisive victory in November’s US presidential election, its performance in 2024 remains ahead of most other commodities.
• According to MNI’s technicals team, Monday’s move down undermined the recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position.

TYH5 is +0-05 firmer at 109-04 after Monday’s solid gains. 

• There has been no cash dealing in US tsys today with Japan out for a bank holiday. Today’s US data (prior, est) includes FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
• Reminder for Tuesday's session: Rate futures have a full session (1600ET close) while cash Tsys close at 1400ET.
• While the NYSE Group markets will close on January 9 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President Carter (New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American Equities, NYSE American Options, NYSE Arca Equities, NYSE Arca Options, NYSE Chicago and NYSE National), the CME Group has opted for early close, link HERE
• FI open outcry will close at 1300ET, and GLOBEX after at 1315ET.
• More to follow, but economic data expected that day is likely to proceed as normal (weekly jobless claims at 0930ET, Wholesale trade & inventories at 1000ET).
• Treasury auctions scheduled for January 9 remain uncertain (4- & 8W bills at 1130ET, 30Y bond re-open at 1300ET).

ACGBs (YM +8.0 & XM +9.5) closed sharply richer on a shortened data-light session ahead of tomorrow’s New Year’s Day holiday.  

• There has been no cash dealing in US tsys today with Japan out for a bank holiday. TYH5 is +0-05 firmer at 109-04 after Monday’s solid gains. Today’s US data (prior, est) includes FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
• Today, the local calendar was empty. The next data releases are CoreLogic Home Value and S&P Global PMI Mfg on January 2.
• Cash ACGBs are 8-9bps richer, and the AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -17bps, around the lowest level since June.
• Swap rates are 7-10bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
• The bills strip is stronger, with contracts +1 to +5.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. A 25bps rate cut is more than fully priced by April (128%), with a 63% probability of a February cut.