HUNGARY: Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 4.3% in March
- The new management of the Hungarian central bank’s foundation, appointed by recently installed Governor Mihaly Varga, has pressed charges on suspected fraud and misappropriation under the previous leadership, local news site Index report. The charges relate in part to a Feb 28 attempt — days before the end of previous Governor Gyorgy Matolcsy’s second term — to transfer control of the foundation’s assets to an entity outside its control.
- Donald Trump Jr. is set to speak at a closed-door business forum in Budapest and will attend a dinner in his honor. It was reported yesterday that he would meet Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto as part of a series of engagements in eastern Europe.
- The government submitted its 2026 budget draft to the Fiscal Council on Thursday. In a post on social media, National Economy Minister Marton Nagy said the draft budget earmarked HUF 4.8trln in support for families, adding that doubled tax allowances would leave HUF 290bln for families raising children, up from HUF 80bln in 2025.
- Hungary's unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in March from 4.5% in February, according to the Central Statistical Office. That compares to expectations of an unchanged rate.
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BRENT TECHS: (K5) Trading Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $74.76 - High Feb 25
- RES 1: $73.57 - High Mar 25
- PRICE: $73.36 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Brent futures have traded higher so far this week and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. For now, gains are considered corrective. However, price has breached the 50-day EMA, at $72.84. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open $74.76 next, the Feb 25 high. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at $68.33, the Mar 5 low.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.45 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.19 @ Close Mar 25
- SUP 1: 116.54/115.75 Low Mar 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Recent gains in BTP futures appear corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing the condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.45, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.28 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
- SUP 2: 160.43 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
The trend condition in EURJPY remains bullish and a recent sell-off appears corrective. This has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.43, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
