ECB: Pullback In EUR NatGas Weighs On Traded Inflation Metrics In Feb
Feb-25 14:39
The pullback in European natural gas prices from Feb 10 highs has weighed on EUR traded inflation metrics. The EUR 5y5y inflation (HICP ex-tobacco) swap is now 2.07%, after reaching a monthly high of 2.12% last week.
Our commodities team have pointed to warmer and windier weather forecasts, below normal storage withdrawals, signs of progress towards a possible Ukraine peace agreement and record US LNG exports as drivers of the natural gas price action this month.
Meanwhile, Brent crude futures also track close to year-to-date lows.
The 1-year inflation swap has fallen 22bps to 2.01% since February 11, while the 2- and 5-year swaps are back below 1.90%.
The February HICP ex-tobacco inflation swap fixing is currently priced at 220bps.
MNI’s full February Eurozone inflation preview will be released tomorrow.
US TSY OPTIONS: April'25 10Y Strangle Sale
Feb-25 14:38
-6,000 TYJ5 110.25/110.5 strangle, 119
5,000 TYK5 111/112 call spds, 20 ref 110-14
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 10Y Buy
Feb-25 14:35
+5,853 TYH5 110-13, buy through 110-12.5 post time offer at 0927:24ET, DV01 $370,000. The 10Y contract trades 110-12.5 last (+16.5).