EM LATAM CREDIT: United Mexican States (MEX; Baa2neg / BBB /BBB-) Fiscal Deficit

• RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13       
• RES 2: 159.65 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 158.36 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 158.31 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 155.93/154.80 Intraday low Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 152.72 1.00 proj of the Jan 24 - Feb 10 - 13 price swing 

Today’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a potential developing reversal. The cross has traded above the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 159.65. Note that a major support at 154.42, the Dec 14 2023 low, remains intact. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bear theme.

• EUR/USD: $1.0245-50(E1.9bln), $1.0275-85(E658mln), $1.0470-75(E1.6bln)
• USD/JPY: Y150.79-00($1.1bln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6350-60($777mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.4300($1.6bln), C$1.4350($1.1bln), C$1.4400($1.5bln), C$1.4425-40($1.9bln)

Large Schatz Swap related trade, suggest payer.

• DUH5 ~16k at 106.80.