STIR: Unsurprisingly Little Reaction in ECB-dated OIS Post 25bp Cut
Jan-30 13:24
Unsurprisingly little reaction in ECB-dated OIS following the rate decision and policy statement, with rates cut by 25bps and the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach maintained.
- The ECB continues to believe monetary policy is still restrictive and financing conditions are tight. This comes after the Q4 BLS and December money and credit data earlier this week, both of which may be referenced in the press conference at 1345GMT.
- Adjusted for today’s cut, OIS price 71bps of easing through year-end. There are 23bps of easing priced into the March meeting, where an updated set of macroeconomic projections will be presented.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Dec-31 13:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.37% (-0.09), volume: $2.290T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $844B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $798B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
