CONSUMER CYCLICALS: US consumers pull-forward purchases (x2)

• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.175%(ALLOT 99.84%)
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 27.50% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.28% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.22% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.29

• The BoC press conference has helped keep CAD rates close to hawkish lows seen after the earlier decision, to reverse the early rally ahead of the decision.
• CORRA futures are up to 5 ticks lower on the day in mid-2026 contracts. It translates to an implied terminal of 2.25% in the H6 (+4.5bps) for exactly at the lowest range of the BoC’s neutral estimates from 2.25-3.25%.
• As for the near-term, the Apr 16 decision is seen as roughly a 50/50 between another 25bp cut or holding at 2.75% in the mid-point of that range.
• Can-US 2Y yield differentials meanwhile have now climbed 8bps since the decision statement, back to little changed on the day at -142bps after sliding heavily ahead of the decision. Whilst still historically depressed, it’s off lows of sub -160bps in early February. 

e-mini NASDAQ on the cusp of erasing the day's early gains, following broader US indices lower as the dust settles on the inflation print. As was the case on the Ukraine-tripped rally off lows yesterday, oversold tech names were leading the bounce but are quickly losing their shine: Tesla have trimmed gains of as much as 9% to 6%, Nvidia to +5% from +8% and Meta from +5% to +1.5%.

• As we note above, there remains evidence of smaller program sellers following the CPI print - for which we see PCE seeing little disinflationary reprieve, despite the miss on headline CPI.
• Both Canada and the EU have outlined tariffs this morning that target US states that leaned heavily toward Trump at last year's election - affected names include Harley Davidson (-5.1%) and Brown Forman, owner of Jack Daniels (-6.7%) as tariff quite clearly remains a key sentiment driver.