OIL: US crude, gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, distillate draw seen

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
• RES 1: 1.0345/54 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
• PRICE: 1.0282 @ 19:12 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0345, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
• US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$79.0B

• Treasuries look to finish mixed Friday, well off early session highs with heavy short end selling weighing across the strip while curves twisted flatter (2s10s -4.357 at 33.679, 5s30s -2.657 at 43.037).
• Massive -46k Mar'25 2Y futures sale triggered a broad based reversal by midmorning, while morning headlines that incoming President Trump held a call with China President Xi elevated volatility. Descriptions of a positive tone for China/US relations provided a boost for the Chinese Yuan.
• A surprise $10B 5-tranche debt issuance from Bank of America contributed to selling in rates.
• Generally positive data: Industrial production surprisingly jumped 0.9% M/M (cons 0.3) in Dec after an upward revised 0.2% M/M (initial -0.1%). Utilities may have helped with their 2.1% M/M increase (strongest since May) but manufacturing production was also stronger than expected with 0.6% M/M (cons 0.2%) after an upward revised 0.4% M/M (initial 0.2%).
• Building permits were a little higher than expected in December at 1483k (cons 1460k) for little change from 1493k in Nov. Housing starts meanwhile, which are more prone to weather disruption, surprisingly jumped to 1499k (cons 1327k) after 1294k in Nov.
• Reminder, the Federal Reserve enters their policy Blackout at midnight tonight through January 30.
• Corporate earnings pick up in earnest next week, headliners expected to announce next Tuesday include KeyCorp, DR Horton Inc, Charles Schwab, Prologis Inc and 3M Co before the market opens, Fifth Third Bancorp, Netflix Inc, Interactive Brokers, United Airlines, Seagate Technology and Capital One Financial after the market closes.