EQUITIES: U.S. Equities Rally After Cash Open
Mar-14 13:51
E-minis bid after the cash open. * We noted a programme buyer at the open but also suggest that U.S...
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USD: Dollar's CPI Strength Sticks, USD/JPY Could Rely on Equities for Next Leg
Feb-12 13:49
The short-term USD move is sticking well here: the dollar is holding the entirety of the gains vs. EUR, GBP, JPY and others.
- What may be interesting here for USD/JPY is how much further the pair could gain without strong US equities as a tailwind - the e-mini S&P is through to weekly lows, with the 6024.50 low within range of the 6,000.00 psychological handle, as well as the 100-dma of 5994.02 for the H5 future.
- Curiously, today's immediate reaction in the e-mini S&P is almost precisely the inverse of that seen in January: a 70 point drop on today's release vs. a 70 point rally on January 15th.
STIR: Next Fed Cut Not Fully Priced Until December Following CPI
Feb-12 13:47
Unequivocally hawkish market reaction to the firmer-than-expected CPI data.
- The next 25bp Fed rate cut is now not fully discounted until the end of the December FOMC. That move was fully priced through September ahead of the release, with 37bp of cuts showing through December pre-data.
- FFZ5 briefly prints 1.0 tick above its January low.
- SFRZ5 briefly prints 2.5 ticks above its January low.
BUNDS: Falls 41 ticks post US CPI
Feb-12 13:42
- Bund has fully closed the gap down to 132.34, and extended as low as 132.19 following the beat in the US CPI, it fell a total of 41 ticks post Data.
- Looking at Technical, focus will be on the Yield and the 2.50%.
- Today, reference 132.26, this level equates to 131.99.
