AMERICAS OIL: US Jan. Crude Oil Exports Rise to 3.93M B/D: Census

• Some selling in Govies across both sides of the Pond, and while the Volume in Tnotes is fairly subdued, the German Bund sees a notable session in terms of Volumes.
• Initial support in Bund is seen at 132.34, Monday's opening gap.

Commerzbank maintain “shorts in (ultra-)long swap spreads both outright and vs. Schatz”, recommending “using relief episodes to add to the position”.

• They write “the mix of recovering repo-spreads and risk-off in the face of trade wars is keeping Schatz-spreads stable. (Ultra-)long spreads in contrast are back at the lows, having erased the entire recovery staged during November/December”.
• They go on to note that “the 2-/30-Year box is now trading above 40bp in invoice spreads, which equates to the cheapest level (for the long end) since the height of the French stress last June adjusted for the CTD-switch”.
• They suggest that “the looming 30-Year syndication is probably weighing on (ultra-)long spreads and we see scope for tactical relief out of the syndication. Nonetheless, the structural cheapening looks set to extend as muted ALM-demand will probably leave hedge funds in charge of closing the great duration gap left by QT and ongoing DV01-intensive issuance.”

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 02/04 $3B #EIB WNG 10Y +60a
• 02/04 $1B KFW 4% 2026 TAP SOFR+20
• 02/04 $Benchmark Valero Energy 5Y +115a
• 02/04 $Benchmark BNG Bank 3Y SOFR+37
• 02/04 $Benchmark Foundry JV 6Y, 8Y, 11Y, 12Y, 14Y
• 02/04 $Benchmark GATX 10Y +125a, 2054 Tap +140a
• 02/04 $Benchmark BNY Mellon 6NC5 +85, 6NC5 SOFR
• 02/04 $Benchmark National Fuel Gas 5Y +145a, 10Y +175a
• 02/04 $Benchmark NextEra Capital 30.5NC5.25, 30.5NC10.25
• 02/04 $Benchmark L-Bank 5Y SOFR+47a (2Y SOFR dropped)