OIL: US Permian Basin's Oil Output Growth to Slow in 2025 Despite Trump's Plan

• Treasuries have drifted sideways since establishing lows after this morning's data: JOLTS report saw surprisingly elevated job openings in November but the quits rate reversed a surprise increase from back in October. Job openings 8090k (cons 7740k) in Nov after an upward revised 7,839k (initial 7,744k) in Oct.
• Headline ISM index strengthened to 54.1, a little higher than the 53.5 expected (52.1 prior), with New Orders (54.2, 53.7 prior) and Employment (51.4, 51.5 prior) exactly matching survey expectations. But Prices Paid soared to 64.4 (57.5 expected, 58.2 prior), jumping by the most since January to the highest level in 22 months.
• The Mar'25 10Y contract slipped below Dec 26 low to 108-01.5 low (-15.5), 10Y yld climbing to 4.6972% high. Though Tsy curves climbed to new three year highs (2s10s 39.618), projected rate cuts for 2025 continued to recede with June 25 no longer fully pricing a 25bp rate cut. Current lvls this morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 at -1.2bp (-2.3bp), Mar'25 -10.2bp (-10.9bp), May'25 -14.7bp (-16.3bp), Jun'25 -23.2bp (-24.2bp).
• Reminder, much of Thursday's data has been moved to Wednesday (Wholesale Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as the 30Y Bond auction re-open to avoid conflicts with Thursday's Federal Holiday/day of Mourning for former President Carter. The CME Group FI trade closes at 1315ET Thursday. Thursday still includes Challenger Job cuts at 0730ET, Tsy 4- & 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, and several scheduled Fed speakers through the day.

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
• RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA               
• RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18   
• RES 1: 0.6273/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6239 @ 20:02 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31 
• SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

Despite Monday’s gains, a bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6400.

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 143.39/144.48 - High Dec 9 High Nov 11  
• PRICE: 141.36 @ 19:44 GMT Jan 07
• SUP 1: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 2: 140.54 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 140-00 - Round number support    

A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle lows, reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes 141.05, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. For bulls, a reversal would open 143.39 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively.