OIL: US Trade War Adds Downward Pressure on Volatile Oil: Macquarie

Downward pressure is likely on a volatile oil market as the Trump administration’s trade war could slow economic growth, according to Macquarie Group cited by Bloomberg earlier this week.

• Macquarie forecast FY25 oversupply of about 1mb/d but with a better-balanced market expected in H2 2025. The price forecast was revised down from 66/bbl to $65/bbl.
• Tariff implementation uncertainty is providing a short-term commodity demand boost but will lead to excess inventory and demand destruction. Global year-over-year GDP forecast for 2025 downgraded to 2.2% amid US import tariffs.
• Existing Russia sanctions on Russia could disrupt 2mb/d of supply disruption if vigorously enforced, but possible sanctions relief has already started pricing in. Iranian sanctions could lead to 0.8mb/d of supply disruption.
• “Resolution of the Russia/Ukraine conflict would greatly reduce Russia’s war-time fiscal and sanctions burden, and as such, could further contribute to degradation of OPEC+ cohesion.”