AMERICAS OIL: US: Trump Endorses House GOP Reconciliation Strategy

Feb-19 14:46

US: Trump Endorses House GOP Reconciliation Strategy

US President Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social endorsing the House of Representatives in its showdown with the Senate over the optimum strategy to legislate the Republican agenda. 
 

  • Trump: "The House and Senate are doing a SPECTACULAR job of working together as one unified, and unbeatable, TEAM, however, unlike the [Senate Budget Committee Chair] Lindsey Graham version of the very important Legislation currently being discussed, the House Resolution implements my FULL America First Agenda, EVERYTHING, not just parts of it! We need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to “kickstart” the Reconciliation process, and move all of our priorities to the concept of, “ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.” It will, without question, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
     
  • Although Trump has previously backed the House's single-bill strategy, today's statement is the most forceful suggestion yet that the Senate should abandon attempts to pass a narrower border security, defence, and energy bill quickly, before turning attention to Trump's tax agenda later in the year. 
     
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is eyeing next week for a floor vote on a budget resolution to underpin his 'mega bill', which includes an extension to Trump's 2017 tax cuts, deep cuts to government spending, and a debt ceiling hike. Trump's backing may provide more time for Johnson to resolve differences with moderates and deficit hawks continue to express concerns with the scope of the package. 
     
  • For more analysis on the reconciliation agenda, see today's edition of the MNI US Daily Brief.

Historical bullets

US: Trump Admin Likely To Push For Change Of Govt In Venezuela

Jan-20 14:46

Advisors to US President-elect Donald Trump told Axios that the incoming administration wants regime change in Venezuela but that “doesn't necessarily mean military action.” 

  • A Trump adviser involved with foreign policy discussions said: "We wouldn't mind one bit seeing [President Nicolas] Maduro being neighbors with [former Syrian President Bashar al] Assad in Moscow," adding that Maduro is "literally ruining the country ... massive refugee issues, sending criminals to the United States, oil production is down, and there are Chinese, Russians and Cubans in there."
  • Axios notes: “Oil interests and investors mounted a pressure campaign late last year to try to smooth relations between the U.S. and Venezuela. In November, they proposed what amounted to an oil-for-migrants deal in which the U.S. would ease sanctions and get more oil products like asphalt from Venezuela. In turn, Venezuela would agree to slow emigration or maybe take back millions of migrants deported from the U.S. But Trump hasn't sounded enthusiastic about striking a deal with Maduro."

EQUITIES: USDJPY is through a new intraday low

Jan-20 14:45
  • USDJPY is pushing through the low, the weaker Dollar following the earlier tariff story, combined with the lower US Yield have kept the pressure on the USDJPY.
  • The next support will be seen just below the figure at 154.97 50-day EMA.
  • Latest headline also confirms the WSJ's report that Trump will stop short of imposing Day-One tariffs according to Reuters.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

Jan-20 14:43
  • RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
  • RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
  • RES 2: 0.6335 50-day EMA   
  • RES 1: 0.6302 High Jan 6
  • PRICE: 0.6279 @ 14:42 GMT Jan 20 
  • SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13   
  • SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair has recently breached 0.6179, Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6100. Resistance at 0.6229, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 0.6335, the 50-day EMA.