FED: US TSY 20Y BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.830%; ALLOT 37.10%

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
• RES 2: 1.0463 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 1.0399 @ 16:41 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0095 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish. For now, the latest recovery appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0338, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0403, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0463. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low.     

• While the US Dollar strengthened moderately during Trump’s speech, the USD index remains around 1% lower on the day. President Trump explained “we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens”, however the lack of details does little to refute the earlier reports that tariffs will not be imminently rolled out, keeping risk elevated and the dollar on the back foot.
• EURUSD reached pullback lows of 1.0354 but has returned near to the 1.0400 mark, while USDJPY remains steady around pre speech levels of 155.80.
• Gains for G10 currencies have remained broad based against the dollar, with the NZD continuing to marginally outperform. There has been some significant volatility for bitcoin, which briefly dipped as much as 8% from earlier session highs of 109,241, and stands around 102,500 at typing.

• EUR/USD: Jan22 $1.0345-50(E1.6bln), $1.0500(E1.1bln); Jan23 $1.0295-00(E2.7bln), $1.0400(E1.8bln), $1.0435-40(E1.0bln); Jan24 $1.0350(E1.4bln)
• USD/JPY: Jan22 Y155.50($1.2bln); Jan23 Y155.00($1.5bln)
• AUD/USD: Jan22 $0.6210(A$2.1bln)
• USD/CAD: Jan23 C$1.4450($1.1bln); Jan24 C$1.4380($1.4bln)
• USD/CNY: Jan23 Cny7.5000($1.9bln); Jan24 Cny7.4500($1.4bln)