FED: US TSY 29Y-11M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.623%; ALLOT 87.85%

• MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 14.87B BSL
• USDA: 2024/2025 CORN YIELD EST 179.30 BSL/ACRE
• USDA: 2024/2025 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION EST 4.37B BSL
• USDA: 2024/2025 SOYBEAN YIELD EST 50.70 BSL/ACRE
• USDA: 2024/2025 WHEAT PRODUCTION EST 1.97B BSL
• USDA: 2024/2025 WHEAT YIELD EST 51.20 BSL/ACRE

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 110-00   High Feb 7
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-00 @ 16:50 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4   
• SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

A bull phase in Treasury futures remains in play despite the run lower off recent highs. This leaves the contract holding the bulk of its latest gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA of 109-10+. This highlights potential for a stronger reversal and sights are on a climb above the 110-00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle. 

Leaders of the two political parties tasked with forming a governing coalition meeting with Federal President Alexander van der Bellen presently amid speculation that talks have ground to a halt and could collapse. Herbert Kickl from the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and Christian Stocker of the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) are meeting van der Bellen separately according to reports from Der Standard. 

• Talks have reportedly hit a roadblock in the past week due to disagreements on the distribution of ministerial portfolios, as well as concerns within the ÖVP of whether a gov't likely led by Kickl would be sufficiently committed to maintiaining a pro-EU, anti-Russia stance, and protecting media freedoms.
• On his way to meet the president, Kickl denied talks had broken down saying "If the negotiations had failed, you would have heard something about it." He claims that his meeting with Stocker on 10 Feb 'went well' and were carried out in a good atmosphere. The FPÖ leader has reiterated that his party holding the Interior Ministry, which controls migration policy as well as law enforcement and the security services, is not up for debate despite ÖVP demands to hold onto the office.
• Should talks collapse there are a number of possible options. One is the appointment of a technocratic gov't of experts by the president. Another is that the ÖVP re-enters coalition talks with the centre-left Social Democrats and liberal NEOS. Alternatively, if none of these options are palatable, snap elections could be called.