AMERICAS OIL: US WEATHER FORECASTER CPC: LA NIÑA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO APR

• CANADA TO HAVE STRONG RESPONSE TO ANY US TARRIF: TRUDEAU

Speaking to reporters at a cabinet retreat in Quebec (live stream), outgoing PM Justin Trudeau says that the 'golden age of the United States' referred to by President Donald Trump in his inaugural address "will require Canadian resources". Says that his gov't "has already acted to address Trump's concerns on border security". 

• After Trump said that 25% tariffs on Canada (and Mexico) could come on 1 Feb, Trudeau says that "Canada will respond in kind if tariffs are imposed". Says that Trump "is a skilled negotiator [who] will do what he can to keep negotiating partners a bit off balance."
• Trudeau: 'I support the principle of dollar for dollar matching tariffs."
• Trudeau: 'We know there will be uncertainty and rhetoric' from Trump admin. Says 'We will stay steady on defending the economic relationship between the US and Canada'.
• It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will interact with the Trudeau gov't on a regular basis. Given that Trudeau is set to leave office in March, the Trump admin may be more inclined to seek negotiations with the incoming Liberal leader (whoever that might be) taking over as PM, or even wait until a general election that could come as soon as the spring. 

The December Chicago Business Barometer™ was unrevised at 36.9, the lowest since May 2024, as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. 

• The Barometer was higher than previously estimated in the first half of the year while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was weaker than previously estimated.
• August and September saw the largest downward revisions, with the Barometer revised lower 1.7 points to 44.4 (from 46.1) and to 44.9 (from 46.6) respectively. April recorded the largest upward revision of +2.0 points to 39.9 (from 37.9).
• The Barometer has remained below 50 for 13 consecutive months and, excluding November 2023, it has been in contractionary territory since September 2022. Q3 showed a faster pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised lower to 44.6 in Q3 (-1.4 points) and to 39.3 in Q4 (-0.3 points). In contrast, Q1 was revised higher to 44.3 (+0.5 points) and to 41.2 in Q2 (+1.0 point).
• Employment saw the largest downwards revision in December of 2.6 points to 46.8, followed by Order Backlogs (-1.1 points).
• Supplier Deliveries was also revised lower by 1.0 point.
• Production was revised 1.0 points higher to 35.1, while New Orders rose a marginal 0.1 points in December.
• Prices Paid remained high, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised up 2.6 points to 62.9.
• Inventories was revised 1.7 points higher in December.
• Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the US Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.