CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Rises By Most Since Start Of 2024
Aug-08 01:24
The USD/CNY fixing printed at 7.1460, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.1831.
- The USD/CNY print was a fresh high back to Nov 20 2023. Yesterday's outcome was 7.1386, so it was a decent step up from that. It's the largest daily rise in the fix since the start of the year.
- The market expected a higher fix given today's estimate was above yesterday's but still it will come as a surprise in terms of the extent of the move.
- USD/CNH has erased earlier losses, the pair now back to 7.1750 (after touching 7.1544 amid stronger yen gains earlier).
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CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Back Close To Recent Highs, Despite Lower USD Index Levels
Jul-09 01:23
The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.1310, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.2692.
- This leaves the fixing just short of recent highs (7.1312, recorded last Wednesday). The fixing error was -1382pips in USD/CNY terms, close to yesterday's outcome.
- The result is slightly bearish in the sense that the fixing is very close to recent highs, but USD indices remain comfortably off recent highs. Versus early July highs the USD BBDXY index is around 0.80% weaker. This suggests still some comfort with modest depreciation pressures.
- USD/CNH has ticked higher post the fixing but found some selling interest above 7.2900.
MNI: CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES
Jul-09 01:22
- CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES
STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing 36bps Of Easing By Year-End
Jul-09 01:09
At the time of writing, RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings.
- There's a 2% probability priced in for a 25bp hike at tomorrow’s meeting.
- The pricing level of 5.51% for the July meeting also represents the anticipated terminal OCR.
- By year-end, a cumulative 36bps of easing is factored into the pricing.
- To provide context, it's worth noting that in late December, the market had expected over 100bps of easing by year-end, stemming from an anticipated terminal OCR of 5.53%.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Expected Terminal & End-24 OCR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
