FOREX: USD Index Softer, USD/JPY Eyeing Tuesday Lows, AU CPI Coming Up
Feb-26 00:15
Early G10 dealings are skewed against the USD, with yen firming in recent trade. The USD BBDXY index is down a touch, last near 1283.6. We are still above recent lows of 1281.2, but the technical set up looks poor this index.
- USD/JPY is tracking lower, the pair last near 148.70/75 (up around 0.20% in yen terms). Intra-session lows from Tuesday printed at 148.57, which could be a short term downside target. Futures volumes have pushed higher on this move, although are within recent ranges for this time of day.
- US Tsy yields are little changed in the first part of dealing, holding losses from Tuesday's session. EUR/USD has edged up to 1.0520/25
- AUD/USD is a little higher last near 0.6350. We have the Jan monthly CPI print coming up. This print doesn't include services price updates so is less useful from that standpoint (these updates come in the mid month of the quarter, so Feb).
- Copper prices, per CMX are holding above $470, following Trump's earlier headlines around possible copper tariffs. This may be aiding the AUD at the margin, but Iron ore is off recent highs.
- NZD/USD is close to 0.5730, so like the AUD, up a touch but this follows Tuesday's underperformance, amid softer US equity tones. US equity futures are firmer in the first part of Tuesday dealing, up 0.25-0.35%, led by the Nasdaq.
- Outside of the AU CPI release due in around 15mins (we also have Aust Q4 construction work done due), the data calendar is light for the remainder of the Asia Pac session.
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Historical bullets
GOLD: Gold Opens Cautiously in Asia As Tariff Risk Heightens.
Jan-27 00:05
- Gold has had a stellar start to 2025 and last week delivered the best weekly gains thus far.
- Gold gained +2.4% last week driven by a ‘safe-haven’ bid in the face of mounting tariff risks.
- This week has started no differently with news that President Trump intends to levy up to 25% tariffs on Colombia following the turning away of a flight from the US, deporting illegal immigrants.
- Gold closed Friday at US$2,770.58 and has given some of that back in early trading, down to $2,767.00
- Over the weekend Ghana’s released it’s trade surplus details, rising US$5bn, driven by a 50% increase in gold exports to $11.6bn.
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.
Jan-26 23:46
- Thailand to Sell 40 Billion Thb of 182-Days Bills
- MAS to Sell S$15.9 Billion 25-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$22.5 Billion 83-Day Bills
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 90D Bills (PH0000058463)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 181D Bills (PH0000058935)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 363D Bills (PH0000059818)
- Bank of Korea to Sell 1 Trillion Won 91-Day Bonds
JGB TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
Jan-26 23:45
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11
- PRICE: 140.70 @ 15:52 GMT Jan 24
- SUP 1: 140.00 - Round number support
- SUP 2: 139.38 - 2.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.87- 3.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes the 140.00 psychological handle next. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.
