CHILE: USDCLP Extends Losses On The Week To 2.5%
Feb-14 14:19
* The Chilean peso continues to outperform today, with the currency rallying another 0.7% against ...
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STIR: 95bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through Year-end Post US CPI
Jan-15 14:18
ECB-dated OIS are up to 5bps more dovish through the blues following the softer-than-expected US CPI report, with 96bps of cuts now priced through year-end.
- 25bp cuts remain essentially fully priced for the January and March meetings, with 15bps of sequential easing priced through into April and March respectively.
- Euribor futures are +3.0 to +12.0 ticks through the blues, with the greens leading.
- ERZ5 has retraced all of this week’s sell-off, currently +7.5 ticks at 97.90.
- The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece assesses the inflationary risks stemming from recent gas price increases.
- Tomorrow’s regional data calendar includes final December CPI from Germany and Italy and Eurozone trade balance data for November. The accounts of the ECB’s December meeting are also due.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.672 | -24.7 |
| Mar-25 | 2.432 | -48.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.282 | -63.7 |
| Jun-25 | 2.136 | -78.3 |
| Jul-25 | 2.086 | -83.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.014 | -90.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.994 | -92.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.963 | -95.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
EQUITIES: Emini sees its biggest single move since December
Jan-15 14:13
- The US Emini (ESH5) is seeing is single biggest since the last Core PCE on the 20th December and the last FOMC from the 18th December.
- The contract has fully cleared pre NFP levels, and now sees the next upside resistance at 5987.43 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance.
- There'll be some decent focus on the Cash open in just over 15 minutes, and look out for potential Program orders.
GILTS: Rally Extends On U.S. CPI
Jan-15 14:11
Gilts comfortably through initial resistance at 90.31, printing as high as 90.88 in the wake of the U.S. CPI data, building on the bullish move that followed this morning’s domestic CPI print.
- Next resistance at the January 8 high (91.58).
- Yields 12-16bp lower, curve bull steepens.
- 10s now 19.5bp off cycle highs, set for the biggest intraday fall since December ’23. Gilt bulls will want to push the benchmark below the Jan 8 low at 4.659%.
- 30s ~17bp off cycle highs.
- 5s30s off session highs, just below cycle closing highs, last 85.6bp.
