CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Edges Up, Error Term Widens

Mar-27 01:20

The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.1763, versus a BBG market consensus of 7.2729.

  • The fixing was above yesterday's outcome, but sub recent highs (7.1788). The fixing error widened to -966pips, from -827pips yesterday. This is consistent with higher USD index levels over the past 24 hours.
  • USD/CNH hasn't reacted much post the fixing and last tracked near 7.2730, close to session lows. headlines from US President Trump earlier that he may give China tariff relief as part of a TikTok deal has helped yuan sentiment at the margins.  

Historical bullets

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1726 TUES VS 7.1717

Feb-25 01:17
  • CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1726 TUES VS 7.1717

JGBS: Cash Bonds Sharply Richer Led By 7Y After Yesterday’s Holiday

Feb-25 01:06

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are sharply higher, +61 compared to settlement levels, after trading resumed after yesterday’s holiday.

  • The Japan services PPI edged up to 3.1%y/y in Jan. This was in line with market forecasts and compared to the revised 3.0% gain from Dec (which was originally reported as a 2.9% rise). The m/m shift was -0.5%, after a flat outcome in Dec.
  • The services PPI is very close to recent cycle highs and consistent with elevated headline inflation pressures, even if m/m services PPI readings have lost some momentum in recent months.
  • Later today, department store sales print, along with machine tool orders (both for Jan). There is also an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 15.5-39-year.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest gains.
  • Cash JGBs are 1-6bps richer across benchmarks, with the 7-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 5.3bps lower at 1.377% versus the cycle high of 1.466%, set last week.
  • Swap rates are 1-3bps lower. Swap spreads are generally wider.

GOLD: Gold Hits New Highs on Rate Cut Expectations. 

Feb-25 01:01
  • Weaker than expected US data gave rate hikes a boost, seeing gold reach new highs.
  • Gold touched US$2,956.18 briefly before giving back early gains, finishing at $2,950.77
  • The weaker than expected data saw treasury yields lower, boosting gold.
  • Gold has had an exceptional start to the year despite hopes of early rate cuts diminishing.
  • Gold has been boosted by the uncertainty from tariffs with investors seeking the safe haven that is gold.
  • Looking ahead for the week, gold will look to US data Friday where personal consumption price index will provide the next insight as to the potential for a move in rates.