FOREX: USD/JPY Eyeing 153.00 Test, AS US-JP Yield Differentials Push Higher
Dec-13 00:46
Outside of a slightly weaker yen backdrop, early G10 FX trends are relatively stable in the first part of Friday dealing. The BBDXY index was last little changed, close to 1288.00.
- USD/JPY initially fell post the stronger than expected Q4 Tankan print, but there was little follow through. From lows of 152.46 we rebounded to 152.90/95 and hold close to these levels in latest dealings.
- Japan yields are slightly lower in the first part of dealing, with the Tankan result not seen as shifting BoJ near term thinking. US-JP yield differentials continue to track higher, the 10yr spread back to +327.5bps (recent lows were at 309bps).
- Upside targets for USD/JPY will likely rest at 153.66, a Fibonacci retracement.
- There is steady trends elsewhere, with AUD/USD around 0.6370, NZD/USD at 0.5770. EUR is near 1.0475.
- US equity futures are higher, particularly for tech, post firmer earnings late in Thursday US trade. US yields are down slightly in the first part of Friday trade.
- We have an RBA speech coming up a little later (Assistant Governor Hunter for Economics), along with Japan Oct industrial production. Otherwise the calendar is largely empty for the rest of today.
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AUSTRALIA DATA: Wage Inflation Moderates To Lowest Since End-2022
Nov-13 00:46
Q3 WPI printed below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. More details to follow. See ABS press release here.
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Sell Asia Tech Stocks
Nov-13 00:41
Taiwan saw the largest outflows since early September on Tuesday, the outflows look largely linked to TSMC with investors likely taking profits following the strong performance post earnings a few weeks ago.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$222m yesterday, with a 5-day total of -$577m. YTD flows remain positive at +$6.607b. The 5-day average is -$115m, worse than the 20-day average of -$170m and the 100-day average of -$94m.
- Taiwan: Posted outflows of -$1.411b yesterday, totaling -$1.179b over the past 5 days. YTD flows remain negative at -$12.772b. The 5-day average is -$236m, worse than the 20-day average of -$12m and the 100-day average of -$168m.
- India: Experienced outflows of -$43m yesterday with a 5-day outflow of -$1.780b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.234b. The 5-day average is -$356m, worse than the 20-day average of -$328m but better than the 100-day average of +$12m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$70m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$485m. YTD flows remain positive at +$2.069b. The 5-day average is -$97m, worse than the 20-day average of -$39m but better than the 100-day average of +$25m.
- Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$15m yesterday, with a total outflow of -$157m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3.611b. The 5-day average is -$31m, worse than the 20-day average of -$26m and the 100-day average of -$8m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$4m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$115m. YTD flows are positive at +$260m. The 5-day average is -$23m, worse than the 20-day average of -$14m but better than the 100-day average of +$3m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$19m yesterday, with net outflows of -$150m over the past 5 days. YTD flows remain negative at -$120m. The 5-day average is -$30m, worse than the 20-day average of -$9m but better than the 100-day average of +$4m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
AUSTRALIA DATA: Australia Q3 Wage Price Index +0.8% Q/Q
Nov-13 00:39
- The seasonally adjusted WPI rose 0.8% this quarter and 3.5% over the year.
- Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter.
- In original terms, the largest industry contributors to quarterly wages growth were Healthcare and social assistance (+1.7%), Retail trade (+2.1%), and Administrative and support services (+2.1%).
