FOREX: USD/JPY Higher With US Yields, CNY Fixing & Caixin Services PMI Due Soon
Early yen weakness is a feature of G10 markets. Yen is off around 0.30% against the USD in the first part of trade. Trends are mixed elsewhere with EUR weaker and back sub 1.0300, while AUD and NZD are up a touch. the BBDXY index is slightly higher, up above 1313. Recent highs in the index rest above 1316.
- USD/JPY is near session highs, last close to 157.70/75. Recent highs in the pair rest at 158.08 (Dec 26), which is likely to be an upside focus point.
- US yields have opened higher, up 1.5-3bps across the curve, led by the back end. Positive US data surprises from late last week and Fed caution around inflation are likely supporting yields. This will be pressuring yen to a degree and is offsetting the rise in JGB yields (with cash bonds open for the first time since early last week).
- AUD and NZD are up a little over 0.15% at this stage, leaving markets with a slight risk on feel. AUD/USD was last 0.6225/30, NZD/USD is above 0.5620.
- On the data front, the Dec services PMI for Japan was revised lower to 50.9 from 51.4. In Australia the services PMI was revised up to 50.8 from 50.4.
- Later we get the Caixin services PMI in China.
- Also note there will be some focus on the CNY fixing, given spot's break above 7.3000 in Friday trade. USD/CNH is relatively steady so far today, holding sub 7.36000 in latest dealings.
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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (2/2)
Throughout November’s policy and market volatility, though, Treasury auctions largely impressed, with 5 of 7 nominal coupon sales trading through.
- Auction Results: November’s nominal coupon auctions were generally strong, with five out of seven auctions trading-through, of which four saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The remaining two auctions; 3 and 20-year auctions tailed. See page 2.
- Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen). December is set to see $15B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $22B in 5Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
- MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (1/2)
MNI's latest US Treasury Issuance Deep Dive has just been published (PDF link here):
November proved a dramatic month for Treasuries. Yields were volatile before and after the Nov 5 election - after ending October at 4.28%, 10Y yields peaked at five-and-a-half-month high just above 4.50% mid-month before closing November just below 4.18%, as markets attempted to price in the implications of a Republican “sweep”.
- Also buffeting rates was speculation over the would-be successor to Treasury Secretary Yellen. President-elect Trump’s selection of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent was greeted with bull flattening in the curve, implying perhaps that he’s seen as more cautious on fiscal deficits than some of the alternatives (he has expressed support for halving the annual budget shortfall to 3% of GDP).
- The first quarterly Refunding process of Bessent’s Treasury is in early February, by which point we may start to have a better sense of the incoming administration’s approach to both fiscal policy and to more issuance-specific considerations such as duration management.
- Bessent for instance has argued that Yellen’s Treasury erred from a risk management perspective by boosting short-duration issuance, and there are suggestions he would be in favor of reversing course, telling Bloomberg in June “When rates are very low, you should extend duration…I think it’s very unfortunate what Secretary Yellen’s doing. She’s financing at the front end, and she’s making a bet on the carry trade, which is not good risk management.”
US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
Our latest Employment Insight has just been published and emailed to subscribers.
