JPY: USD/JPY Holding Above 152.00 On Higher US Yields, BoJ Takata Speaks Today
USD/JPY is holding close to 152.10 in early Wednesday dealings. Dips towards 151.50 were supported in Tuesday US trade, while earlier highs from the Asia Pac session (152.22) remained intact. Yen lost around 0.40% for Tuesday's session, the 3rd worst performer in the G10 space, as broader USD sentiment recovered some ground. The BBDXY index last near 1289.9, up 0.20%.
- For USD/JPY technicals, key levels continue to hold. Recent weakness highlights that - for now - a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 154.24, remains intact. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
- Yen was weighed by higher core yields. US Tsy yields rose around 8bps towards the back end of the curve, with the 10yr back to 4.55%. This keeps us within recent ranges, but US-JP yield differentials have stabilized as a result, providing less downside impetus for USD/JPY.
- US data was mixed, but recent Fed speak expressed less optimism than usual over the prospect of near-term rate cuts.
- Locally today, we have the Jan trade data, with exports and imports expected to print firmer versus Dec outcomes. Core machine orders for Dec are also due to print.
- Note as well we hear from BoJ board member Takata speaking in Miyagi.
- In the option expiry space, note a Y154.00($3.0bln) expiry for NY cut on Feb 20.
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000058455).
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000058927).
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000059800).
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW1.2Tn 91-Day Bonds.
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.4tn 10-Year Bonds.
AUD: A$ Rallies On US-China News, AUDUSD Holding Around 62c
The G10 were down against the US dollar on Friday but the Aussie was one of the better performers as risk appetite improved following news that President-elect Trump had requested a trip to China to meet President Xi signalling possibly better-than-expected relations between the two. AUDUSD rose to 0.6227 on the news before trending lower to 0.6193 to be down 0.3% on Friday. It is currently around 62c. The USD index rose 0.3%.
- The bearish trend in AUDUSD continues with lower lows and lower highs. Moving-average studies are also in a bear mode. On Friday the pair fell to 0.6165. Initial support is at 0.6131, January 13 low, and resistance at 0.6233, 20-day EMA.
- With the yen underperforming in the better risk environment, AUDJPY rose 0.4% to 96.79 after a high of 97.17. AUDNZD is 0.1% higher at 1.1092 after a low of 1.1065. AUDEUR was down slightly at 0.6029. AUDGBP is 0.2% higher at 0.5089.
- Equities rallied with the S&P up 1% and Euro stoxx +0.8%. Oil prices were lower with Brent falling 0.7% to $80.79/bbl. Copper fell 2% on Friday while LME base metals rose 1.9% on the week. Iron ore is around $101.50/t.
- Today there are no data or events in Australia.
USD: Goldman Sachs On USD - Volatility Likely To Pick Up, But Firmer USD Outlook
Goldman Sachs: "USD: Into the storm. We expect that coming US policy changes will add to the case for Dollar strength, even beyond the strong asset returns that have proven a high bar to beat in recent years. That said, we see some near-term risks given the market's building expectation for quick action on tariffs, and the Dollar's demonstrated proclivity to weaken on signs of a more graduated approach to tariffs. We think investors are probably taking “Day 1” pledges too literally; while it has become common for presidents to sign some executive orders on the first day, these are often more symbolic or aimed at rolling back policies from the previous administration. And it is not just investors that are expecting a clear signal from next week. For example, the Bank of Japan cited uncertainty around the incoming US administration’s policies as one factor impacting its decision to keep rates steady in December. This strikes us as overly optimistic for a quick resolution of that uncertainty. While the president can take relatively quick action on trade under a range of existing authorities, there are a number of measures that our economists expect to be seriously considered but ultimately not enacted. That implies a series of back-and-forth headlines, just like last time. Rather than next week bringing clarity, we think the storm is just rolling in. We expect it will pay to be patient."
