USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 151.33/152.30 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 150.18 @ 17:04 GMT Dec 04
- SUP 1: 148.65 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 147.80 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
USDJPY traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday, confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle and retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. The pair has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 152.30, the 20-day EMA.
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USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 3: 156.67 76.4% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 155.27 2.00 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 153.88 High Oct 28
- PRICE: 152.05 @ 17:01 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 151.46 Low Oct 25
- SUP 2: 150.73/148.99 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has traded through 153.40, 61.8% of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. A clear breach of this level would set the scene for an extension towards 155.27, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 148.99, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 150.73.
COMMODITIES: WTI Rises As OPEC Delays Unwind Of Production Cut
- Crude oil prices have rallied today, driven by OPEC’s decision to delay the start of its cut unwinding. A weaker USD is also supportive.
- WTI Dec 24 is up by 2.9% at $71.5/bbl.
- OPEC+ had originally planned to gradually return output of 2.2mb/d, starting with a 180kb/d increase in December.
- For WTI futures, initial resistance is at $72.34, the Oct 24 high, with key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold is broadly unchanged today, with the yellow metal less than 0.1% higher at $2,738/oz.
- The pullback from last week’s record high at $2,790 is considered corrective for now.
- Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of $2,685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on the $2,800.0 handle next. Firm support is $2,712.8, the 20-day EMA.
- In contrast, copper has rallied by 1.4% to $443/lb today, amid renewed China stimulus hopes.
- China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee held a meeting today where it discussed a plan to increase local governments’ debt ceiling to swap out their hidden debt, according to Bloomberg.
- A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $479.00, the Sep 30 high.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: S&P Services PMI, ISM Services, 10Y Auction
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-5 0830 Trade Balance (-$70.4B, -$84.0B)
- Nov-5 0945 S&P Global Services PMI (55.3, 55.3)
- Nov-5 1000 ISM Services Index (54.9, 53.8)
- Nov-5 1000 ISM Services Prices Paid (59.4, 58.2)
- Nov-5 1000 ISM Services Employment (48.1, --)
- Nov-5 1000 ISM Services New Orders (59.4, --)
- Nov-5 1130 US Tsy $80B 42D CMB auction
- Nov-5 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CLW9)
