MYR: USD/MYR Edges Lower, But Still Above Key Support,
Spot ringgit is one of the better EM Asia FX currency performers so far today in Wednesday trade. USD/MYR was last near 4.4620 so slightly up from earlier lows (4.4540) but still up 0.20% versus the USD so far today. From a technical standpoint, we are holding sub the 200-day EMA (near4.4860), but still above other key EMAS (which are clustered close to 4.4490/4.4530).
- Given the authorities view the ringgit as undervalued, we may continue to see intervention risks more heightened around the 4.5000 region in the pair. Since late 2024, moves above this figure level have ultimately proven good selling opportunities in the pair.
- The elevated US real yield backdrop suggests we may have seen a sustained breach of 4.5000 absent official efforts to curb MYR depreciation pressures.
- USD/CNY trends we be the other focus point for USD/MYR, with ringgit traditionally correlating well with yuan moves, albeit not the strongest in recent months (which rests with SGD and KRW).
- The local data calendar is empty until Q4 GDP revisions print on Friday.
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STIR: $-Bloc Markets Firm After Stronger Than Expected NFPs
In the $-bloc, rate expectations through December 2025 have firmed by 11–17bps following Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data for December. The firming has been led by Canada and Australia, where December pricing strengthened by 17bps and 15bps, respectively. The US market saw a 14bps increase, while New Zealand has risen by 11bps.
- Looking ahead to December 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 4.05%, -28bps; Canada (BOC): 2.82%, -43bps; Australia (RBA): 3.75%, -57bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.02%, -123bps.
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
MNI: CHINA DEC EXPORTS +10.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +7.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA DEC EXPORTS +10.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +7.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA DEC IMPORTS +1.0% Y/Y VS MEDIAN -1.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA DEC TRADE SURPLUS +$104.84 BLN VS MEDIAN +$100.0 BLN
- CHINA 2024 EXPORT +5.9% Y/Y VS JAN-NOV +5.4% Y/Y
- CHINA 2024 IMPORT +1.1% Y/Y VS JAN-NOV +1.2% Y/Y
- CHINA 2024 TRADE SURPLUS +$992.2 BLN VS JAN-NOV +$882.7 BLN
ASIA STOCKS: Hong Kong & China Equities Struggle, Following PBOC Comments
Chinese equities are under pressure despite the PBOC's latest efforts to support the yuan, with early trading showing most indexes lower. Investors remain unimpressed as today's PBOC comments and Governor Pan's remarks offer little new information. The timing of the announcement, coinciding with onshore market closures, contrasts with prior morning interventions that lifted stocks. Underwhelming economic data and rising geopolitical tensions are further dampening sentiment.
- The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell as much as 1.9%, led by Shenzhou International (-5.2%) and Sunny Optical (-4.8%), making it one of Asia's worst performers. The HSCEI is down more than 18% since October 7, on track for its sixth consecutive daily decline and nearing a technical bear market.
- The HSI is 1.95% lower with HS Tech down 1.70%, while property stocks are lower, although outperforming the wider market, with the Mainland Property Index down just 0.60%. In mainland China equities, the CSI 300 is down 0.45%, while small-cap benchmarks are mixed.
- Broader Asian sentiment also weakened, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 0.8%, while US equity futures are also trending lower with S&P 500 eminis 0.35% lower, while Nasdaq eminis are trading 0.40% lower.
- China Trade balance data is due out at some point during the session, with expectations of a $100.00b surplus, slightly above November's reading of $97.44b
