POWER: Vattenfall Advances 2026 Power Hedges
Vattenfall has advanced its power hedges for its planned Nordic nuclear and hydropower generation for 2026, while keeping the 2025 hedging ratio stable on the quarter, it said.
- Vattenfall hedged 52% of its planned Nordic production for 2025 at an average price of €48/MWh as of 31 December 2024. This was unchanged on the quarter.
- The utility hedged 27% of its planned production for 2026 at an average achieved price of €41/MWh as of the end of 2024. This was up from 25% hedged at a higher price of €42MWh at the end of 3Q 2024.
- For 2027, Vattenfall hedged 11% of its planned output at €41/MWh as of the end of 2024. The firm published 2027 hedging data for the first time.
- Vattenfall’s electricity generation decreased by 1.3TWh on the year in 2024 to 99.6TWh due to the disinvestment of its heat operations in Berlin and the gas-fired condensing plant Magnum in the Netherlands.
- The firm’s hydropower generation fell by 1.4TWh last year to around 35TWh.
- Vattenfall’s nuclear generation edged up by 0.5TWh to around 38TWh in 2024, despite nuclear availability edging down to 80.4% last year, from 80.5% the year before.
- Wind power generation increased by 3.6TWh to around 17TWh due to new capacity additions - the offshore wind farms Hollandse Kust Zuid and Vesterhav.
- The utility’s installed combined onshore and offshore wind capacity rose to 6.43GW as of the end of 2024, compared with 5.36GW in 2023.
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GILTS: Flat Start, Long End Supply Due
Little net movement in gilts as softer-than-expected French CPI counters earlier selling in Bunds.
- Futures +10 at 92.05,
- Bearish technicals intact in the contract.
- Initial support at the Dec 19 low/bear trigger (91.64), while initial resistance is located at the Jan 2 high (92.88).
- Yields little changed across the curve to start.
- Gilt/Bund 10-Year yield spread flat at 216bp.
- SONIA futures 0.5-1.5bp higher on the day with wider bonds off lows and BoE-dated OIS showing 57bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 56bp early today.
- DMO issuance for calendar ’25 gets underway this morning, via GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 gilt.
BONDS: Bobl/Bund Block trade
Bobl/Bund block trade suggest a steepener, perfectly weighted.
- RXH5 ~2.35k sold at 132.40.
- OEH5 ~4.95k bought for 117.25.
SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.507 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $30.184 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
