REAL ESTATE: Vicinity (VCXAU: A2/A): Equity raised to overweight at JPM
VCXAU is trading wide for the rating. Results 19th Feb.
- VCXAU issued a 7yr AUD this week which swaps in EUR at z+101. VCXAU 5.6051 2032 Compares to VCXAU 29s z+110a for 2yrs shorter. They are clearly not going to issue in € any time soon.
- VCXAU 29s trade wide to BBB curves such as URWFP and LIFP. It is also wide to SCGAU, another Aussie name with A2/A rating
- Gearing is currently sitting at 27% after a number of disposals at the end of last year. This is at the low-end of the rating threshold from Moody's.
- JPM is positive on the Retail environment in Australia with 5% growth in consumption expected. Rates market is pricing in 0.72% of rate cuts this year which will help.
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USD: The Dollar is King going into Year End
- The Dollar remains king, and the old saying of "Buy Dollar, Wear Diamonds" is suited as we head towards Year end.
- Only the Malaysian Ringgit, and the Hong Kong Dollar are up YTD, and even the Exotics are down.
- Within G10s, it is a painful Year for the Kiwi, as we stand going into the European session, down 10.59%, NOK 10.5% and the Yen is still down 10.21% YTD.
- Incredibly, although Cable is below 1.2600, it is only down 1.54% for the Year.
- For Technical in G10s, most Pairs/Crosses are some way short of their next respective Supports/Resistances, {r1} EURUSD would see next support at 1.0343 Low Dec 20.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6064.86 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 6050.75 High Dec 20
- PRICE: 6036.75 @ 06:56 GMT Dec 24
- SUP 1: 5866.00 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Dec 18 highlights a S/T top and a corrective cycle. The move down resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open 5811.65, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. Support at 5921.00, Nov 19 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is 6064.86, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would be a bullish development.
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $30.891/32.338 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $29.703 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 24
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the trend condition. The metal has breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
