INDONESIA: VIEW: ANZ Sees 2025 Growth Remaining At 5%
Feb-06 04:56
Q4 Indonesian GDP was as expected rising 0.5% q/q and 5.0% y/y up from 4.9% in Q3 leaving 2024 up 5% in line with 2023. ANZ believes that growth will stay around 5% in 2025 due to steady domestic demand and a “challenging” external environment. Despite President Prabowo’s goal of 8% growth the fiscal stance remains “conservative”. ANZ is forecasting only one more 25bp cut given its expectation of only 25bp from the Fed in 2025, but it sees the risks skewed to the downside.
- ANZ believes that “Faster growth would hinge on either significant new initiatives from the Prabowo administration, or a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in Chinese demand. As things stand, the 2025 fiscal stance is conservative, targeting a deficit of 2.53% of GDP from 2.75% in 2024.”
- “Expenditure showed that final domestic demand has remained the main growth engine. The contribution from government consumption picked up slightly, while that from private consumption and investment growth held steady.Net exports were a drag on growth.”
- “Both private and government consumption growth picked up in 2024, but this was offset by a pullback in investment growth and a drag from net exports. Notably, investment expanded just 4.0% y/y in 2024, well below the 5.35% average seen before the pandemic.”
- “Overall growth in 2024 would have been weaker were it not for a continued build-up in inventories. in 2025, supported by steady domestic demand.
- A key constraint for Indonesian households is the need to rebuild savings, which were drawn down during the pandemic. Meanwhile, investment growth should improve as the uncertainty from the 2024 election year dissipates. However, the upside will be capped by several factors, including the shift in fiscal preference away from infrastructure.”
- Indonesia's relatively lower dependence on exports means it is more insulated compared to some of its Asian peers from the prospect of a tougher US trade policy regime.”
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JGBS: Little Changed After A Solid 10Y Auction Supports Market
Jan-07 04:42
JGB futures are in slight positive territory, +2 compared to the settlement levels.
- Outside of the previously outlined Monetary Base date, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash bonds are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest bear-steepener. Tuesday’s US data calendar includes JOLTS, ISM Services and Tsy 10Y Re-Open.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper across benchmarks beyond the 1-year but richer than pre-10-year auction levels. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.2bps lower at 1.134% after dealing as high as 1.143% earlier.
- The 10-year JGB auction delivered solid results, with the low price beating expectations, the cover ratio nudging higher and the tail shortening. Weaker sentiment toward global long-end bonds and expectations of further near-term tightening by the BoJ didn’t appear to weigh significantly on demand.
- The swaps curve has twist-steepened, pivoting at the 10-year, with rates 1bp lower to 3bps higher.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Consumer Confidence Index alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.
FOREX: USD/JPY Off Highs On FinMin Comments, A$ & NZD Outperform
Jan-07 04:35
The USD BBDXY index sits little changed in the first part of Tuesday dealing. The index last down a touch to under 1304. We are still above intra-session lows from Monday (sub 1300), which after reports that the incoming Trump administration would scale back its tariff plans (which was later denied). Yen and CHF have underperformed, while A$ and NZD have outperformed, leaving markets with a slight risk on feel in the FX space.
- USD/JPY got to multi month highs of 158.42, but sits lower now, last near 158.00 (close to Dec 26 highs - 158.08). Comments from the Japan FinMin around excessive FX moves, prepared to act, tempered upside USD/JPY momentum. However, the remarks don't appear to represent an escalation on what has been said recently by Japan officials.
- A consolidated break above 158.00, could see 159.45 targeted (July 12 highs). Of course this would put us back in the mid 2024 intervention zone. There is also less sponsorship from US-JP yield differentials for this recent move higher in the pair, with yield differentials lower in the 2yr space and sideways for the 10yr.
- AUD/USD is up around 0.20%, last 0.6260, still sub intra-session highs from Monday ( just above 0.6300). It is a similar backdrop for NZD, up a little over 0.30% to 0.5660/65.
- Regional equities are mostly positive, except for Hong Kong/China, following US blacklisting of tech bellwethers, including Tencent. This hasn't impacted broader FX risk appetite though.
- A speech in Las Vegas from Nvidia's CEO, which focused in part on new graphics card, hasn't shifted aggregate US equity futures. We are around flat at this stage.
- US yields have ticked lower, likely leaning some pressure on the USD.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin speaks and US November trade, JOLTS job openings, December services ISM and preliminary December euro area CPI and November unemployment rate are released.
US TSYS: Slightly Richer Ahead Of JOLTS & ISM Services Data
Jan-07 04:31
TYH5 is 108-18+, 0-01+ from NY closing levels.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, the trend condition in 10-year futures remains bearish. Recent weakness reinforces the current bear cycle - the contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108.00, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term gains are considered corrective below the 109-10+ 20-day EMA.
- Cash bonds are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest bear-steepener.
- Tuesday’s US data calendar includes JOLTS, ISM Services and Tsy 10Y Re-Open.
