HUNGARY: Virag Says Jan CPI a "Warning Sign," But Should Not Overreact

RXH5 132.5/133.5/134 broken call fly, bought for 11 in 2k.

No surprises in seeing an active Option market in SONIAs, dominated by upside, given the miss in the CPI earlier Today.

• SFIK5 95.45/95.60cs, bought for 10.25 in 3k.
• SFIU5 95.85/96.00cs vs 95.50/95.35ps, bought the cs for 1.5 in 4k.

German GDP fell 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 2024 according to Destatis' preliminary estimate. That follows Q3's +0.1%, and brings total 2024 GDP growth to -0.2% Y/Y on a non-adjusted basis (in line with consensus, following -0.3% in 2023) and calendar-adjusted basis (-0.1% 2023).

• As drivers behind the full-year contraction, Destatis cited "increasing competition for the German export industry in important sales markets, high energy costs, persistently high interest rates, but also an uncertain economic outlook".
• Across gross value added by sector, manufacturing and construction stand out negatively at -3.0% and -3.8% Y/Y, respectively. Services was overall positive at +0.8%, underpinned by the "public services, healthcare, education" category at +1.6%.
• Productivity was weak, with GDP per employee at -0.4% Y/Y (-1.0% 2023), and GDP per hour worked at -0.1% Y/Y (-0.6% 2023).
• Final data containing more detail are to be released in the coming weeks.
• For 2025, MNI's collation of sellside analysts stands at a median of +0.3% Y/Y - having been downwardly revised by 0.2pp during the last three months.