REFINING: Volgograd Oil Refinery Gradually Resumes Operations

Stabilisation away from session lows also evident in GBP STIRs as the day progresses, leaving 44bp of cuts priced through year-end and SONIA futures little changed to -4.5 on the day.

• UK headline flow limited since PM Starmer’s comments that underscored the government’s desire to stick to the fiscal rules and generate growth, while underscoring its willingness to make difficult spending decisions.
• We will hear from BoE’s Breeden again on Tuesday, but as is the case with most of her speeches, there is unlikely to be much on monpol.
• More focus will be placed on comments from dovish dissenter Taylor later in the week, as well as Wednesday’s CPI data.

US Cash open is set for a steady, stable start with futures mostly trading in a holding pattern for the past 2hours ahead of a very busy Week.

• Calls: SPX: 5,791.0 (-0.6%); DJIA: 41,917 (-0.1%/-22pts); NDX: 20,645.5 (-1.0%).

Better put flow continues even as underlying futures pare losses. Note large Jun'25 strangle buyer:

• 5,000 SFRJ5 95.50/95.56 put spds ref 95.83
• +10,000 SFRM5 95.56/96.12 strangle, 12.00 ref 95.83
• -10,000 SFRU5 95.37/95.56 put spds vs 5,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.87 put spds, 5.75-6
• -15,000 SFRU5 95.18/95.43 put spds v SFRZ5 95.87/96.06 put spds, 7.5-7.25
• -4,000 SFRZ5 95.18 puts 0.5 over 96.12/96.62 call spds vs 95.88/0.38%
• +4,000 SFRZ5 95.25 puts, 13.5 vs. 95.88/0.25%