POLAND: Wage Growth Cools To +9.2% Y/Y In January

Poland's wage growth cooled to +9.2% Y/Y, roughly in line with expectations, while local desks pointed to statistical distortions of labour market data related to the annual change of the sample of surveyed firms.

• ING write that January was the second consecutive month with a single-digit wage growth, while employment fell by 0.9% Y/Y. The prospect of weaker labour cost pressures on services prices and core inflation opens up room for NBP rate cuts, which they expect to start in 3Q25. They also point to a notable improvement in the construction sector, but add that January is not a particularly representative month.
• mBank write that the pace of wage growth continued to cool in January and should reach +7-8% Y/Y by the end of the year. In their view, the "last mile" of fight against inflation will end in 2026, when slower wage growth filters through to services price inflation. They note that the MPC has fewer and fewer arguments to keep interest rates on hold.
• Pekao point to a weaker start to the year for the domestic labour market, but clarify that it might be a statistical artefact related to the annual change of the sample of surveyed enterprises. They write that wage data was "solid", especially considering high comparative base from last year, with wage momentum returning to around +9% Y/Y.
• The Polish Economic Institute also flag systematic distortions of January economic employment data, noting that quarterly indicators signal an improvement in the labour market. They write that a slower wage growth is related to a smaller minimum wage hike this year than in 2024, as well as weaker outturns in sectors with slower activity (e.g. manufacturing, transport).

Table 1. Poland January Economic Activity Data