EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Walmart; earnings ahead
(WMT; Aa2/AA/AA)
Those involved in Kraft primary, may be interested in catching Walmart earnings (scheduled for this morning). 20% of Kraft US sales is to Walmart, and as the largest US retailer markets will look at it for read-through on the US consumer. Still Walmart's growth is coming from its own/private brand sales (as mentioned above consumer trading down) - i.e. headline strength may not directly translate as a positive.
Walmart itself is having a strong year. MSD sales growth, double digit e-commerce growth and HSD EBIT growth. It's flagging continued market share gains including now winning over higher income consumers. The combination sent its stock +100% last year, topping €IG consumer equity performance.
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BONDS: Futures are pushing lower
Schatz Swap related trade, suggest more Paying flows:
- DUH5 ~11.6k at 106.615.
French OAT has now also closed its opening gap, following on the Bund and Tnotes (TYH5).
Next support in Bund will be seen at 131.50, was not only Yesterday's low, but also Friday's low.
CANADA: USDCAD Back A Little Below Pre-WSJ Headlines As Tariff Talk Dominates
- Tariff headlines continue to dominate proceedings after President Trump said last night that he thinks 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be enacted from Feb 1, dashing some optimism after reports yesterday had anticipated no tariffs would be unveiled on “day one”.
- Canadian premiers and officials are still working on a response, with Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs (and recently promoted FM) LeBlanc saying none of this should be surprising with Canada still committed to talks on border security.
- USDCAD currently at 1.4443 is back to just 20-25 pips below levels seen prior to the market-moving WSJ report yesterday. That’s via yesterday’s low of 1.4262 (clearing multiple supports) before spiking to 1.4516 overnight for fresh highs since early in the pandemic and before that 2016.
- Those swings have established wide initial technical levels, with further resistance seen at 1.4539 (Fibo projection) and support at 1.4230 (50-day EMA).
- Surprisingly, whilst under heavy pressure having slid 0.9% against the US dollar, CAD isn’t bottom of the G10 FX pack and is broadly in line with AUD and NZD whilst outperforming NOK with oil prices pushing lower.
- CORRA futures are trading up to 3 ticks firmer on the day, whilst BoC-dated OIS prices 19bp of cuts for next Wednesday’s BoC decision.
- Today’s CPI report offers some near-term focus. MNI Canada CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Canada_CPI_Prev_Jan2025_c2d4f416b4.pdf
ESM ISSUANCE: 6-Month ESM-Bill Auction Results
| Type | 6-month bills |
| Maturity | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.084bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.095bln |
| Avg yield | 2.485% |
| Previous | 2.719% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.51x |
| Previous | 3.07x |
| Previous date | Nov 19, 2024 |
