EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 28, 2025
.Italy, Germany, France and Greece are due to sell bills next week. We expect issuance to be E17.0bln in first round operations, up from E14.6bln this week.
- On Monday morning, Italy will look to sell E2.0bln of the 5-month Sep 12, 2025 BOT and E2.0bln of the 5-month Sep 30, 2025 BOT.
- Also on Monday, Germany will look to issue E2bln of the 3-month Jul 16, 2025 Bubill and E3bln of the 9-month Jan 14, 2026 Bubill.
- On Monday afternoon, France will come to the market with a combined E7.5bln of 7/14/25/51-week BTFs: E0.3-0.7bln of the 7-week Jun 18, 2025 BTF; E3.0-3.4bln of the new 14-week Aug 6, 2025 BTF; E1.2-1.6bln of the 25-week Oct 22, 2025 BTF; E1.4-1.8bln of the 51-week Apr 22, 2026 BTF.
- Finally on Tuesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 13-week Aug 1, 2025 GTB.
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EURGBP TECHS: Finds Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24
- PRICE: 0.8369 @ 14:41 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: 0.8333 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
EURGBP has traded lower this week. However, today’s rally from the intraday low highlights a possible reversal. A strong daily close today would strengthen the bullish significance of today’s bounce. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position. This suggests that the pullback from the Mar 11 high, has been a correction. Resistance to watch is 0.8395, the Mar 24 high. Key near-term support lies at 0.8333, today’s intraday low.
SNB: Quarterly Bulletin / Business Cycle Signals Provide Backdrop of SNB Cut
The SNB has published their "quarterly bulletin" as well as their quarterly "business cycle signals". Key highlights:
- "For the next two quarters, companies expect purchase and sales prices to remain stable or rise slightly (chart 8). On the one hand, reductions in the price of electricity and gas are curbing costs. On the other hand, the rising prices of certain raw materials and inputs are leading to slight upward pressure on purchase prices in manufacturing and construction" - suggests risks of material deflation in Switzerland are limited for the moment "
- The companies surveyed report solid turnover growth overall in the first quarter. Growth momentum in the services sector and construction remains robust. Turnover in manufacturing also saw tangible growth, having barely increased in previous quarters" - the KOF indicator points towards robust growth ahead
- "Companies are no longer as concerned as in previous years about the shortage of specialist staff and recruitment difficulties. Staffing levels are approximately in line with companies’ needs" - mirroring the softening labour market in Switzerland
- "The growth outlook is brightening somewhat but is still subject to considerable uncertainty. In particular, as long as the precise details of the new US administration’s trade policy are not known, the effects are difficult for companies to assess" - as expected given the current global backdrop
Link to the quarterly bulletin (also contains business cycle signals
publication on the back): https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/quarterly-bulletin/2025/quartbul_2025_1_komplett
GILTS: /SWAPS: TD Securities Maintain Recommendations Post-Spring Statement
In the wake of the Spring Statement TD Securities “continue to see value in 10s30s flatteners and paid 5s10s30s fly. Also, we hold long bias for long-end ASW.”
