EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 17, 2025
Feb-14 16:09
Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Greece, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills nex...
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EURIBOR: OI Suggests Short Setting Prevalent On Tuesday
Jan-15 16:08
OI data suggests short setting was once again prevalent through the Euribor greens on Tuesday. Pockets of long cover was seen in the blues.
- Euribor futures followed core EGBs lower through the course of yesterday’s session, with German yields reaching multi-month highs across the curve.
| 14/01/2025 | 13/01/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 586,469 | 571,334 | +15,135 | Whites | +55,187 |
| ERM5 | 686,259 | 649,729 | +36,530 | Reds | +17,625 |
| ERU5 | 486,106 | 483,607 | +2,499 | Greens | +6,754 |
| ERZ5 | 645,806 | 644,783 | +1,023 | Blues | -730 |
| ERH6 | 414,534 | 413,689 | +845 | ||
| ERM6 | 336,831 | 336,178 | +653 | ||
| ERU6 | 277,699 | 270,673 | +7,026 | ||
| ERZ6 | 270,786 | 261,685 | +9,101 | ||
| ERH7 | 171,544 | 169,548 | +1,996 | ||
| ERM7 | 131,571 | 129,673 | +1,898 | ||
| ERU7 | 103,993 | 103,692 | +301 | ||
| ERZ7 | 131,026 | 128,467 | +2,559 | ||
| ERH8 | 57,504 | 57,429 | +75 | ||
| ERM8 | 43,571 | 43,783 | -212 | ||
| ERU8 | 22,336 | 23,420 | -1,084 | ||
| ERZ8 | 39,687 | 39,196 | +491 |
FOREX: EURUSD Reverses Post-CPI Move, EURJPY Down 1.05%
Jan-15 16:02
- The US dollar has been gradually paring losses in recent trade, with the greenback assisted by equities moderately off their best levels. EURUSD stands out, having entirely reversed the post-CPI move to trade back at 1.0300. Notably, the single currency underperformance keeps EURGBP on the backfoot, edging closer back to 0.8400, while EURJPY extends session declines to over 1%. Below here for EURJPY, the focus will be on 160.00, a notable pivot for the cross, coinciding with the Monday low.
US INFLATION: Core PCE Estimates Tilt Lower After CPI Report
Jan-15 15:59
Some post-CPI core PCE estimates below - while not all had pre-CPI/PPI forecasts, it's pretty clear that CPI points to a slightly softer figure than seen coming into this week and certainly after PPI (pre-PPI it was around 0.20%, post-PPI it looked to be closer to 0.25%, now looks to be back to 0.20% or the high 0.10s%).
December Core PCE % M/M ests (0.11% prior):
- Wells Fargo 0.21%
- Nomura: 0.205% (had been 0.272% pre-CPI, post-PPI)
- HSBC: 0.2% (rounded)
- Cleveland Fed nowcast: 0.189% (had been 0.23% pre-PPI and pre-CPI)
- JPM 0.186%
- Morgan Stanley: 0.166%
