LATAM: Week Ahead: BCB, BCCh Interest Rate Decisions, Chile, Argentina Q4 GDP
Mar-14 16:51
- Focus next week will be on monetary policy decisions in Brazil on Wednesday and Chile on Friday. While a 100bp hike in Brazil and further pause in Chile are widely expected, attention will be on the forward guidance, with the Copom expected to slow the tightening pace in Q2 and the BCCh to maintain a cautious stance. On the data front, economic activity stats are due in Peru (Sat), Brazil (Mon) and Colombia (Tues). Q4 GDP figures are expected in Chile (Tues) and Argentina (Weds).
- On Saturday, Peru will publish economic activity stats for January, as well as February unemployment data. Growth is seen moderating to a still strong 4.1% y/y, according to the latest consensus.
- The BCB will publish its usual Focus survey on Monday, followed by January economic activity figures. Elsewhere, Argentina February budget data will cross.
- Chile Q4 GDP and current account data on Tuesday will be the last ahead of Friday’s BCCh MPC meeting. The central bank will also publish its latest traders survey, likely to confirm expectations for an extended rate pause ahead. In Colombia, BanRep will release its economist survey, alongside January economic activity numbers, while in Brazil the government is set to announce its income tax reform plans.
- The Copom is widely expected to deliver another 100bp Selic rate hike on Wednesday to 14.25%, in line with the forward guidance. Focus will be on what guidance the central bank provides for subsequent meetings. On the data front, Colombia January trade and Argentina Q4 GDP are the highlights.
- On Thursday, Mexico Q4 aggregate supply and demand and the latest Citi economist survey are due, while Argentina releases Q4 unemployment data.
- The BCCh looks set to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% for a second successive meeting on Friday, amid elevated inflation and an uncertain external backdrop. The Bank is likely to maintain a cautious tone, while it assesses incoming data, with recent surveys pointing to the likelihood of an extended pause ahead.
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SECURITY: Bessent Says US Stands w/Ukraine Ahead Of Key Week For Peace Process
Feb-12 16:37
Reuters reporting comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a meeting in Kyiv today.
- Amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s long-term commitment to Kyiv, Bessent said he, “would like to send a signal to the world the US stands with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” Adding that his first visit being to Ukraine, “shows the war is a top priority for the Trump administration.”
- Zelenskyy characterised the discussion as “productive and constructive” noting that he will study a natural resources agreement presented by Bessent ahead of Friday’s Munich Security Conference. Zelenskyy confirmed that resources in territories occupied by Russia were not discussed.
- An agreement between the US and Ukraine to provide US firms with rights to Ukrainian resources, including rare earths, is seen as facilitating continued US assistance, with Bessent noting a critical minerals deal is “part of a larger peace deal…”
- Trump wrote in a message on Truth Social ahead of the meeting: “The U.S. has spent BILLIONS of Dollars Globally, with little to show.”
- Trump’s national security advisor Mike Walz told NBC this week: “We need to recoup those costs and that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources and their oil and gas, and also buying ours. Those conversations are going to happen this week.”
FOREX: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY North of Key Pivots on Light Volume
Feb-12 16:32
USD/JPY has resumed the day's rally, creeping through earlier highs just after the London close in price action still dominated by the dollar and the extended post-CPI reaction. Curiously volumes are light on the latest leg higher in the pair, although remain higher than average across the day as a whole after the CPI-bump in activity.
- A close at current or higher levels would mark the strongest session for the pair this year, and the strongest since December 19th (prices would have to rise to ~Y155.10 today to match). We noted earlier today the corrective nature of the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY rallies, however both prices have now topped key pivor resistance at 154.51 in USD/JPY and 159.93 (and 160.00) in EUR/JPY, the 50-day and 20-day EMAs respectively- a strong bullish technical signal on both charts.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 2.45%)
Feb-12 16:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.230%(ALLOT 2.45%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 38.51% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 2.85% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.38
