LATAM: Week Ahead – Feb 24-28
Feb-21 17:51
- The key data highlight on the regional docket next week will be Brazil’s mid-month reading of IPCA inflation. Data is likely to show the persistence of inflationary pressures in Brazil inflation, while January’s job market figures may bring early signs of the labour market cooling. In Mexico, the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey expects headline inflation to rebound in the first half of February from the two-week period prior, led by food prices. Decelerating core services inflation will likely limit any concerns for Banxico officials. Additionally, Argentina will release economic activity data for December.
- Mon Feb 24 – Brazil consumer confidence, BCB Focus survey of economists, Mexico CPI and Chile PPI.
- Tue Feb 25 – Brazil inflation, Mexico current account balance and Argentina economic activity data for December.
- Wed Feb 26 – Colombia business sentiment indicators.
- Thu Feb 27 – Brazil current account and FDI data, Mexico unemployment and trade balance.
- Fri Feb 28 – Chile production, unemployment rate and retail sales figures, Colombia unemployment and Mexico net outstanding loans data. BanRep have a board meeting but this is not a monetary policy decision meeting.
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FED: US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $106 MLN FROM $13.000 BLN TOTAL
Jan-22 17:45
- US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $106 MLN FROM $13.000 BLN TOTAL
US: Majority Of Americans Think Trump's Proposed Tariffs Will Raise Costs
Jan-22 17:44
A survey from Ipsos has found that a majority of Americans believe that proposed by US President Donald Trump will raise the price of consumer goods.
- Ipsos: "...a majority of Americans (66%) think these tariffs will raise the cost of the goods they buy, according to the latest data from the Ipsos Consumer Tracker. That perception is practically unanimous among Democrats (at 87%), but nearly half of Republicans feel the same."
- Ipsos notes: "We've also seen that high confidence the tariffs will happen in the first place: 81% of Americans think"it's likely that Trump will try to increase tariffs on imports from China and Mexico," according to a recent Ipsos poll for The New York Times."
Figure 1: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following? - Tariffs will raise prices on goods I buy”
Source: Ipsos
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview: $13B 20Y Bond Auction Re-Open
Jan-22 17:40
Tsy futures are trading weaker, near recent lows (TYH5 currently at 108-15, -8.5) ahead today's $13B 20Y-Bond auction re-open (912810UF3) at 1300ET. WI is currently running at 4.910%, 22.4bp cheap to last month's reopen tail:
- December auction recap: Tsy futures hold weaker (TYZ4 trading 111-04.5, -6.5), after $13B 20Y bond auction reopen (912810UD8) tailed again: 4.686% high yield vs. 4.671% WI;
- That kept the consecutive streak of tailed auctions alive at 4 for the 20Y, with the latest sale showing fairly average statistics though better than November (which saw a high yield almost identical to December's sale, at 4.680%):
- Bid-to-cover of 2.50x was likewise unremarkable vs the 5-auction average 2.53x, but better than November's 2.34x.
- Dealers took down 17.9% of competitives (vs 22.6% prior, 14.8% 5-auction average), with indirects 62.0% (69.5% prior, 70.1% avg) and directs 20.1% (7.9% prior, 15.1% avg).
- Timing: today's 20Y note results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.
