TARIFFS: White House Fact Sheet Specifies Tariff Timelines, Exemptions

• +12,000 TUM5 at 103-18⅛, last trades 103-17+
• -11,000 FVM5 at 108-06¼, last trades 108-05
• DV01 $490k, Trade post time 07:53:56 AEDT / 2:53:56 ET  
• The 2s5s curve closed -1.7bps at 0.839, the lowest since mid-Dec.

US President Trump has signed an order for 20% tariffs on China rather than the 10% announced. This has driven risk- and China-exposed Aussie lower with AUDUSD falling from a peak of 0.6254 to 0.6199, a drop of 0.9%. It is recovering and currently 0.2% higher on the day and around 0.6223 having found support at 62c. AUDUSD rose earlier driven by disappointing US ISM data which weakened the US dollar. The USD index is off its intraday low but is still down 0.4%.

• AUDUSD has remained above support at 0.6193, 28 February low. A break of 0.6171 would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is at 0.6309, 50-day EMA.
• The yen has done well in the heightened risk environment leaving AUDJPY down 0.5% to 93.07 but off the recent low of 92.54.
• AUDNZD is down 0.1% to 1.108 after falling to 1.1070 following a high of 1.1107.
• The euro had strengthened following slightly higher-than-expected inflation data. AUDEUR is down 0.8% to 0.5936 after a trough of 0.5924. AUDGBP is 0.7% lower at 0.4900 off the low of 0.4891.
• Equities were mixed with the Euro stoxx up 1.4% but S&P down 1.8%, which was already trending down before the tariff news but slid further afterwards. Oil prices are lower with Brent -2.0% to $71.34/bbl. Copper rose 0.9%, while iron ore is lower at $101.50/t.
• Today the February RBA minutes are published. Q4 current account data including the net export contribution to GDP, which is forecast to be -0.1pp, and January retail sales print. The public demand contribution to Q4 GDP is also released.