US: White House Press Conference Underway Shortly

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
• RES 2: 1.0461 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 1.0400 @ 15:58 GMT Jan 21
• SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0097 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The latest recovery in EURUSD appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0346, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0393, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0461. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish.    

• ESH5 has extended gains to 6082.25, pushing above Monday’s post-WSJ ‘no tariffs on day one report’ high with attention on President Trump’s infrastructure speech due at 1600ET.
• Recent reporting by CBS concerning AI investment linked to OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle has seen strong gains for Oracle and Softbank ADRs.
• Next resistance is seen at 6107.50 (Dec 26 high) after which lies 6163.75 (Dec 16 high). Support meanwhile isn’t seen until 5961.75 (Jan 16 low). 

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• OEH5 116.50/117.50^, bought for 54.5 in 3k.
• ERM5 98.00/98.50 1x2 call spread paper paid 2.5 on 2.5K.
• ERM5 97.75/98.50 RR, bought the put for 12 in 10k (ref 97.735, 52%d)
• ERM5 97.75/98.00cs 1x2, bought for 4.5 in 2.5k.
• ERM5 97.75/98.125cs 1x1.5, bought for 9.25 in 6k
• ERM5 97.87/98.00/98.12/98.25c condor, bought for 3.5 in 30k.
• SFIU5 95.90/96.25/96.60c fly, bought for 7 in 10k.