AMERICAS OIL: Wildcatter Hamm Says Shale Needs $80 Oil for Costly Fields: BBG

• -5,000 FVH5 105-28.25, sell through 105-28.5 post time bid at 0854:00ET, DV01 $ 205,000. The 5Y contract trades 105-28.5 last (-14).

The January inflation readings exceeded all analyst expectations, and this looks like a legitimate miss to the upside as opposed to purely idiosyncratic factors at play. 

• The highest M/M core CPI estimate seen by MNI was 0.37% (by Morgan Stanley - the actual reading was 0.45%), with the highest headline expectation of 0.35% also greatly exceeded (0.38% by Barclays, 0.47% actual).
• As noted ("Core CPI Q4 Downward Revisions Only Partly Offset Booming January") , we could potentially pin these "misses" on slight downside revisions to the SA figures for December making for a lower base of comparison, amid slightly softer inflation momentum in Q4 than previously estimated, though the the sequential momentum was still stronger than expected across the board even accounting for this.
• Bolstering the case that the seasonal factor revisions played a large hand in the "miss", the Y/Y non-seasonally adjusted forecasts were not too far off, at 3.00% Y/Y headline (2.90% median, Citi was the only estimate at 3.0% though there were some in the mid-upper 2.9s).
• The core CPI reading of 3.26% Y/Y was above the 3.16% median, but not excessively so - we did see several at around 3.2%.
• The only main category of CPI to surprise to the downside versus consensus was food, at an unrounded 0.36% M/M (vs 0.40% median) - and that despite a 15% increase in egg prices which had been flagged as a major driver this month.
• Elsewhere, though, the upside surprises were prevalent, though energy may legitimately have exceeded sequential expectations largely on a downward revision to prior.

SFIU5 96.35/96.65/96.80c fly, bought for 4 in 25k.