CONSUMER STAPLES: Woolworths: new 7.5y (x3)
(WOWAU; Baa2/BBB; Stable) Pricing pushed to tomorrow. Size at exp. 500m....
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SILVER TECHS: Has Traded Through The 20- and 50-day EMAs
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.484/33.397 - High Feb 25 / 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $31.225 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: $30.815 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver weakness last week resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, at $31.399, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
STIR: Euribor Futures Scaling Off Lows Alongside Bunds
Euribor futures are off overnight lows alongside Bunds, but remain flat to -2.5 ticks through the blues as markets assess prospects of a Europe-brokered ceasefire in Ukraine and the well-known need for increased region-wide defence spending.
- The ECB decision headlines this week’s regional calendar. A fifth consecutive 25bp cut is unanimously expected, with more interest in the policy statement guidance and the updated March projections. MNI’s ECB preview will be released tomorrow.
- ECB-dated OIS price 85bps of easing through year-end, little changed from Friday’s close.
- Final February manufacturing PMI data from France, Germany and the Eurozone is due this morning, but first reads from Spain and Italy will be of most interest.
- Eurozone flash February HICP is due at 1000GMT. Following this morning’s Dutch data (3.5% Y/Y vs a 3-analyst strong 3.2% consensus), MNI’s tracking suggests headline inflation tracks close to the 2.3% Y/Y expected.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.420 | -23.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.250 | -40.8 |
| Jun-25 | 2.055 | -60.3 |
| Jul-25 | 1.982 | -67.6 |
| Sep-25 | 1.888 | -77.0 |
| Oct-25 | 1.856 | -80.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.801 | -85.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.791 | -86.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4472 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.4441 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.4288 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 1.4380, the Feb 10 high, has been breached. This opens 1.4472 next and 1.4548, Fibonacci retracement points. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4288, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.
