AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude is higher on the day amidst a weaker dollar
{US}{7i} March 12 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude is higher on the day amidst a weaker dollar as the market also assesses increasing global trade friction and potential for further sanctions on Russia/Iran. However, sentiment is undermined by concerns around global demand, centered around the US and China, and rising OPEC+ output from April.
- President Sheinbaum said Wednesday that Mexico’s administration would wait to respond to the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs until April 2. Canada is set to impose 25% retaliatory tariffs on C$29.8bn of US goods from March 13.
- OPEC has kept its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.45m b/d for 2025, according to their March Monthly Oil Market Report.
- EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose roughly in line with expectations by 1.45mbbl with an increase in refinery runs and drop in exports back to 3.29mbpd.
- US CPI came in below expectations: US CPI Feb’25 Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.216%; Core: 0.227% (0.446% prior mth)
- Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal from the US but Russia has said that it will only approve it on its own terms and not the US terms. If it refuses, President Trump has threatened more sanctions and also tariffs on the country.
- Yemen's Houthis said it will resume attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea which will likely further deter transit through the region.
- Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, speaking on state tv, said the country’s oil output averaged 1.058m b/d in February.
- The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is nominally bearish for heating demand through March 25 with below-normal conditions forecast in the West, but milder conditions expected in the eastern half of the continent. Elevated heating demand remains likely in PADDs 4 and 5, with below normal demand in most of PADDs 1-3.
- US cracks diverged, with diesel cracks lower after EIA data showed another weekly drop in implied demand. Gasoline cracks rose after a larger-than-expected decline in stocks, in part due to an increase in implied demand.
- WTI Apr futures were up 2.3% at $67.75
- WTI May futures were up 2.3% at $67.46
- RBOB Apr futures were up 2.1% at $2.15
- ULSD Apr futures were up 0.5% at $2.21
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 22.54$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 1.2$/bbl at 24.98$/bbl
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: Voters Says Trump Is Doing What He Promised On Campaign Trail
A new survey from CBS has found that most Americans describe Trump as "tough," "energetic," "focused" and "effective" — and believe he is “doing what he'd promised during his campaign…”
- CBS notes: “Many say he's doing more than they expected — and of those who say this, most like what they see. Very few think he's doing less."
- CBS adds: “His partisans and his voters, in particular, say he's got the right amount of focus on matters like ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs and deporting those who are in the country illegally. His deportation policy finds majority approval overall — just as most voters said they wanted during the campaign — and that extends to sending troops to the border, too."
- The report warns: “But one key issue looms: Most Americans say the administration isn't focused enough on lowering prices. Inflation was a key reason Mr. Trump won the election.”
Figure 1: “Describe Donald Trump as…?”
Source: CBS
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage inches up to $99.653B this afternoon from Friday's $95.248B - compares to last Wednesday's $78.788B -- lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties rebounds to 41 from 33 prior.
US TSY FUTURES: March'25/June'25 5Y Roll Surge
Tsy quarterly futures roll from March'25 to June'25 gets underway today with decent volume in 5s. Percentage complete remains low, less than 2% across the curve ahead the "First Notice" date on February 28. Current roll details:
- TUH5/TUM5 appr 2,000 from -6.0 to -5.5, -5.75 last
- FVH5/FVM5 appr 84,700 from -3.25 to -2.75, -2.75 last
- TYH5/TYM5 appr 6,700 from -0.25 to +0.25, +0.0 last
- UXYH5/UXYM5 less than 300 from 4.5 to 4.75, 4.75 last
- USH5/USM5 appr 500 from 4.75 to 5.75, 5.25 last
- WNH5/WNM5 less than 100 from 3.5 to 4.5, 4.25 last
- Reminder, March futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on March 20, 2s and 5s on March 31. March Tsy options expire February 21.
