OIL: WTI Crude is higher today
April 22 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude is higher today after the US imposed sanctions on Iran’s LPG trade, reversing most of yesterday’s losses amid demand concerns due to tariffs and US monetary policy. Comments by Trump about his call with Netanyahu and Bessent’s comments on China were late drivers of the rally.
- “I’ve just spoken to Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, relative to numerous subjects including Trade, Iran, etc. The call went very well—We are on the same side of every issue.” Trump said via Truth Social.
- Axios reporter Barak Ravid said via X: “Trump spoke with Netanyahu by phone. American and Israeli sources told me that one of the topics was the hostage deal.”
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.
- The fresh Washington sanctions on Iran include measures against Iranian gas and shipping entities. The US Treasury has sanctioned LPG tanker Tinos I.
- The US is set to hold talks in London with Ukrainian and European officials on Wednesday as the Trump administration tries to progress stalled Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
- Markets continue to worry about the outlook for energy demand given increased protectionism and escalating trade tensions between the US and China at a time of expected excess supply.
- Talks between the US and Iran could resume this week with oil market focus on the future of US sanctions on the producer. On April 19, the US and Iran agreed to begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal.
- Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ compliance to improve in the coming weeks, following signals from the group’s leadership and with prices in the historic sweet spot for compliance, according to an analyst note.
- Russian oil flows to India are on track for their highest level in two years this month, Bloomberg reports.
- Angola’s oil output averaged 1.04m b/d in March, below expectations of 1.09m b/d, according to government figures.
- Crude put skews strengthen slightly amid ongoing oversupply risks despite a recent recovery in futures price.
- US cracks were higher ahead of weekly inventory data and as refined product gains lagged crude oil.
- WTI May futures were up 1.8% at $64.20
- WTI June futures were up 2.0% at $63.65
- RBOB May futures were up 1.7% at $2.10
- ULSD May futures were up 1.8% at $2.15
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 24.04$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 25.96$/bbl
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
