AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude is lower on the day after signs of peace in Ukraine

RRP usage falls to new low at $76.446B this afternoon from Monday's $99.653B - compares to prior low of $78.788B last week Wednesday, the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties falls to 36 from 41 prior.

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
• PRICE: 1.2420 @ 16:10 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / Jan 3   
• SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

GBPUSD has improved off lows, but remains well below the Feb 5 high. The pair has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.              

A new CBS/YouGov survey has found that although President Donald Trump's early actions “have been met with robust support from nation's Republicans,”  this “doesn't mean they wouldn't want to see some pushback from congressional Republicans when the delegation disagrees with him.”

• CBS: “…a sizable 4 in 10 rank-and-file Republicans would have their congressional delegation support whatever Mr. Trump wants — a view largely boosted by those Republicans who identify as part of the MAGA movement.”
• CBS notes separately that 65% of Democrat voters now believe that Congressional Democrats should oppose Trump as much as possible, up from 46% in January.
• The survey suggests that the Trump administration may face opposition to its agenda when it faces legislation in Congress, with a bipartisan majority of voters comfortable with their elected officials opposing Trump's agenda.

Figure 1: Congressional Republicans’ Approach to Trump Should be… (Among Republicans)

Figure 2: Congressional Democrats’ Approach to Trump Should be too… (Democrats)

Source: CBS News/YouGov