AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude is lower on the day after signs of peace in Ukraine
March 13 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude is lower on the day after further signs of progress towards peace in Ukraine, after comments by Putin appeared to show some willingness towards a ceasefire agreement. Earlier, the IEA revised down its 2025 demand forecast amidst increasing trade tensions, adding to bearish pressure.
- Putin says 'the ceasefire itself is right and we will support it, but there are questions to be discussed'.
- Trumps administration is imposing further sanctions including on Iran’s oil minister as well as further vessels used to circumvent the sanctions and some other entities Bloomberg reports.
- The IEA expects oil demand of 103.9m b/d this year, representing a 100k b/d downward revision to last month’s forecast, citing a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions amidst rising trade tensions.
- The IEA’s current balance suggests that supply may exceed demand by 600k b/d this year.
- Oil markets have been concerned about the impact of increased protectionism on global growth with threats of further tariffs on EU goods. Europe and Canada said they would retaliate for the US’s import duties on steel and aluminium.
- A Ukrainian official said Kyiv will not recognize Russian rights over Ukrainian territory and they were not discussed in Jeddah.
- The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is nominally bearish for heating demand through Mar 26 with below-normal conditions forecast in the West, but milder conditions expected in the Northeast and Midwest, spreading south later in the period. Elevated heating demand is likely in PADDs 4 and 5, with below normal demand in most of PADDs 1-3.
- US cracks diverged, with diesel cracks extending losses from yesterday amid last week’s drop in implied demand. Gasoline cracks extended gains following last week’s larger-than-expected stocks draw.
- WTI Apr futures were down 1.7% at $66.56
- WTI May futures were down 1.7% at $66.25
- RBOB Apr futures were down 0.8% at $2.13
- ULSD Apr futures were down 2.0% at $2.16
- US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 23.07$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.7$/bbl at 24.30$/bbl
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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage falls to new low at $76.446B this afternoon from Monday's $99.653B - compares to prior low of $78.788B last week Wednesday, the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties falls to 36 from 41 prior.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Last Week’s High
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.2420 @ 16:10 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
GBPUSD has improved off lows, but remains well below the Feb 5 high. The pair has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
US: Majority Of GOP Voters Support Congressional Pushback To Trump
A new CBS/YouGov survey has found that although President Donald Trump's early actions “have been met with robust support from nation's Republicans,” this “doesn't mean they wouldn't want to see some pushback from congressional Republicans when the delegation disagrees with him.”
- CBS: “…a sizable 4 in 10 rank-and-file Republicans would have their congressional delegation support whatever Mr. Trump wants — a view largely boosted by those Republicans who identify as part of the MAGA movement.”
- CBS notes separately that 65% of Democrat voters now believe that Congressional Democrats should oppose Trump as much as possible, up from 46% in January.
- The survey suggests that the Trump administration may face opposition to its agenda when it faces legislation in Congress, with a bipartisan majority of voters comfortable with their elected officials opposing Trump's agenda.
Figure 1: Congressional Republicans’ Approach to Trump Should be… (Among Republicans)
Figure 2: Congressional Democrats’ Approach to Trump Should be too… (Democrats)
Source: CBS News/YouGov
