COMMODITIES: WTI Gains Amid Supply Disruption, Gold Within Sight Of Record High

• RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24  
• RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8463 High Jan 15  
• PRICE: 0.8443 @ 19:24 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14   
• SUP 2: 0.8332/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
• SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for stronger short-term gains. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8332.

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
• RES 1: 1.0345/54 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
• PRICE: 1.0282 @ 19:12 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0345, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
• US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$79.0B