ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Bear Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: €84.50 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: €80.49 - High Feb 13
- RES 2: €77.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 30 - Mar 7 bear leg
- RES 1: €74.23 - High Mar 19 and a key resistance
- PRICE: €68.75 @ 13:27 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: €66.78 - Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: €64.05 - Low Dec 17 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: €61.98 - Low Oct 9 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 4: €59.26 - Low Apr 3 ‘24
The trend outlook in ICE EUA futures remains bearish and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The break lower exposes key support and the bear trigger at €66.78, the Mar 7 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 30. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at €74.23, the Mar 19 high.
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CANADA 2025 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS +5.5%
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - House Takes Initiative After Budget Vote
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- 11:00 ET 16:00 GMT: US President Donald Trump will convene the first Cabinet meeting of his second term.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) scored a major win, passing a budget resolution that will underpin a mammoth reconciliation bill covering the bulk of President Trump’s agenda.
- The House vote will ease some concerns from the Senate, but there are still major obstacles to a final package - namely the Senate's position that a tax package must make the TCJA permanent.
- Republican leaders will meet today to discuss the March 14 government funding deadline. In response to the House budget vote, the implied probability of a government shutdown decreased slightly but the overall risk remains elevated.
- CBC reports that “North America-wide tariffs are not a done deal", citing a White House clarification on Trump's Monday comments.
- Trump ordered the Commerce Department and USTR to examine tariffs on all copper imports.
- Markets are braced for Nvidia’s Q4 earnings report – the first since DeepSeek disrupted the Artificial Intelligence sector.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit the White House on Friday to meet with President Trump and sign a deal to share mineral revenue with the US.
- The Senate voted to undo a Biden-era rule limiting offshore drilling.
- Republicans are likely to shield the bulk of Biden’s clean energy investments.
- Poll of the Day: 80% of Americans believe tariffs will lead to increased prices.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
BONDS: OAT/Bund spread targets the 2025 low.
OAT Block trade, suggest buyer:
- OATH5 ~1k at 124.28.
OATH5 is through the session high and testing the immediate resistance right here at 124.32.
Further out for OAT, sees 124.73.
France leads in Futures, helping push the OAT/Bund spread tighter, now by 1.3bp.
Some will look at the 2025 low of ~70.8bps, better support is seen at 68.65bps, the September 2024 low.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
