ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: €88.55 - 1.382 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing
- RES 3: €86.75 - 1.236 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing
- RES 2 €83.85 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing
- RES 1: €83.40 - Intraday high
- PRICE: €83.21 @ 13:27 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: €77.26 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: €73.79 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: €71.55 - Low Sep 9
- SUP 4: €67.36 - Low Dec 23
A bull cycle in ICE EUA futures remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards €83.85, the 1.00 projection of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing. A key short-term support lies at €77.26, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSY FUTURES: Extending Highs
- Treasury futures continue to march higher, mirroring support in EGBs (see 0754ET bullet), otherwise no substantive headline or Block driver.
- Tsy Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25 last (+11) puts it back to last Monday's early range, 10y yield declining .0545 at 4.5709%.
- Curves remain mixed, 2s10s -.050 at 28.792, 5s30s +1.967 at 37.374.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.46% (-0.07), volume: $2.275T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.45% (-0.05), volume: $840B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.45% (-0.05), volume: $803B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
EQUITIES: Futures Through the Friday Lows as Megacaps Underperform Pre-Market
US futures now through the Friday lows as volumes and participation pick up at the NY crossover. Move lower for stocks is coming alongside a fresh daily low in the US 10yr yield - this is the inverse of the price action we noted into the Friday close, which saw the e-mini S&P drop ~80 points as the US 10y yield added ~5bps.
- An early underperformer amid single stocks had been Boeing - which traded lower by as much as 9% in pre-market trade this morning - but has since trimmed the losses to around 2%. Megacap names are underperforming ahead of the bell (as had been the case last week): Tesla lower by 1.9%, NVidia -0.9%, Apple -0.8%, Meta -0.8%.
- Today's marks one of the last full session of the year for equity markets - so rebalancing flows could prove dominant, estimates of which vary but some notable names see over $20bln of US equities to be sold from US pension funds in order to rebalance against the December price action - a sizeable flow when compared to historicals.
