ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle High

Jan-29 13:37

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* RES 4: 88.55 - 1.382 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing * RES 3: 86.75 - 1.236 proj of...

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: Extending Highs

Dec-30 13:13
  • Treasury futures continue to march higher, mirroring support in EGBs (see 0754ET bullet), otherwise no substantive headline or Block driver.
  • Tsy Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25 last (+11) puts it back to last Monday's early range, 10y yield declining .0545 at 4.5709%.
  • Curves remain mixed, 2s10s -.050 at 28.792, 5s30s +1.967 at 37.374.

STIR: Repo Reference Rates

Dec-30 13:07
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.46% (-0.07), volume: $2.275T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.45% (-0.05), volume: $840B
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.45% (-0.05), volume: $803B
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

EQUITIES: Futures Through the Friday Lows as Megacaps Underperform Pre-Market

Dec-30 12:59

US futures now through the Friday lows as volumes and participation pick up at the NY crossover. Move lower for stocks is coming alongside a fresh daily low in the US 10yr yield - this is the inverse of the price action we noted into the Friday close, which saw the e-mini S&P drop ~80 points as the US 10y yield added ~5bps.

  • An early underperformer amid single stocks had been Boeing - which traded lower by as much as 9% in pre-market trade this morning - but has since trimmed the losses to around 2%. Megacap names are underperforming ahead of the bell (as had been the case last week): Tesla lower by 1.9%, NVidia -0.9%, Apple -0.8%, Meta -0.8%.
  • Today's marks one of the last full session of the year for equity markets - so rebalancing flows could prove dominant, estimates of which vary but some notable names see over $20bln of US equities to be sold from US pension funds in order to rebalance against the December price action - a sizeable flow when compared to historicals.

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