ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Losing Streak Extends to Eight Sessions
Feb-20 11:42
- RES 4: €86.75 - 1.236 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing
- RES 3: €85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2 €84.50 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: €80.49 - High Feb 13
- PRICE: €72.50 @ 11:38 GMT Feb 20
- SUP 1: €72.26 - Low Feb 20
- SUP 2: €71.86 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 17 - Jan 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: €70.40 - Low Dec 30 ‘24
- SUP 4: €68.88 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 17 - Jan 30 bull leg
ICE EUA futures have traded lower again Wednesday, extending the losing streak to eight consecutive sessions, confirming the bear leg posted off the Jan 30 high. The contract is further through support at the 50-day EMA, at €76.74. The break has extended through deeper support at €74.28, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at €80.49, the Feb 13 high. A breach would highlight a potential reversal.
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BONDS: Futures are pushing lower
Jan-21 11:35
Schatz Swap related trade, suggest more Paying flows:
- DUH5 ~11.6k at 106.615.
French OAT has now also closed its opening gap, following on the Bund and Tnotes (TYH5).
Next support in Bund will be seen at 131.50, was not only Yesterday's low, but also Friday's low.
CANADA: USDCAD Back A Little Below Pre-WSJ Headlines As Tariff Talk Dominates
Jan-21 11:34
- Tariff headlines continue to dominate proceedings after President Trump said last night that he thinks 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be enacted from Feb 1, dashing some optimism after reports yesterday had anticipated no tariffs would be unveiled on “day one”.
- Canadian premiers and officials are still working on a response, with Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs (and recently promoted FM) LeBlanc saying none of this should be surprising with Canada still committed to talks on border security.
- USDCAD currently at 1.4443 is back to just 20-25 pips below levels seen prior to the market-moving WSJ report yesterday. That’s via yesterday’s low of 1.4262 (clearing multiple supports) before spiking to 1.4516 overnight for fresh highs since early in the pandemic and before that 2016.
- Those swings have established wide initial technical levels, with further resistance seen at 1.4539 (Fibo projection) and support at 1.4230 (50-day EMA).
- Surprisingly, whilst under heavy pressure having slid 0.9% against the US dollar, CAD isn’t bottom of the G10 FX pack and is broadly in line with AUD and NZD whilst outperforming NOK with oil prices pushing lower.
- CORRA futures are trading up to 3 ticks firmer on the day, whilst BoC-dated OIS prices 19bp of cuts for next Wednesday’s BoC decision.
- Today’s CPI report offers some near-term focus. MNI Canada CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Canada_CPI_Prev_Jan2025_c2d4f416b4.pdf
ESM ISSUANCE: 6-Month ESM-Bill Auction Results
Jan-21 11:32
| Type | 6-month bills |
| Maturity | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.084bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.095bln |
| Avg yield | 2.485% |
| Previous | 2.719% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.51x |
| Previous | 3.07x |
| Previous date | Nov 19, 2024 |
