UKRAINE: Zelenskyy Indicates He Needs Clarity From Trump On Security Assurances
Feb-26 13:42
Reuters reporting comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on a US mineral-sharing deal he is expected to sign during a White House meeting with US President Donald Trump on Friday.
- Zelenskyy characterises the deal as a "framework" noting that an additional agreement to set up a fund will follow. He clarifies that the deal won't require ratification from the Ukrainian parliament.
- Zelenskyy says the deal could be part of US security guarantees but that "depends on Trump", adding that he will "ask Trump directly whether he will stop military aid flows."
- Zelenskyy says he will discuss the "possibility to use Russia's frozen assets for mining resources development, weapons purchase, reconstruction."
- Zelenskyy indicates that the final deal may be more limited in scope than anticipated noting there is, "no debt to be repaid to US in wording of minerals deal."
- Bloomberg's Javier Blas argues that Trump may be overestimating the importance of Ukraine's mineral reserves, particularly rare earths.
- Blas: “At best, the value of all the world’s rare-earth production rounds to $15 billion a year — emphasis on “a year.” That’s equal to the value of just two days of global oil output. Even if Ukraine had gigantic deposits, they wouldn’t be that valuable in geo-economic terms.
- “[if Ukraine was able] to produce 20% of the world’s rare earths. That would equal to about $3 billion annually. To reach the $500 billion mooted by Trump, the US would need to secure 150-plus years of Ukrainian output.”
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STIR: BLOCK: Sep'25 SOFR Call Spread
Jan-27 13:30
- 10,000 SFRU5 96.37/96.62 call spds 4.5 ref 96.06 at 0824:57ET
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - House GOP Tackles Trump's Agenda In Florida
Jan-27 13:26
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has invited US President Donald Trump to address a joint session of Congress on March 14.
- House Republicans are gathered in Florida this week to discuss strategy for legislating Trump’s agenda through a fractious Republican majority in the lower chamber. Trump is expected to deliver a keynote address to the retreat at 17:00 ET 22:00 GMT.
- Johnson will hope that, by the end of the week, he has a workable framework in place for a single reconciliation bill.
- Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, will have his Senate nomination hearing on Wednesday.
- Trump offered a preview of his muscular foreign policy and trade strategy in a standoff with Colombian President Gustavo Petro.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio held his first call with his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
- Markets and policymakers are bracing for the implications of a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that could disrupt US dominance of the sector.
- The Kremlin is waiting for the White House to OK a call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The Pentagon is readying more than 5,000 warfighting troops for deployment to the southern border.
- Trump disrupted diplomacy in the Middle East, suggesting that Jordan and Egypt should accept over a million refugees from Gaza.
- Poll of the Day: Voters believe corruption, inefficiency, and red tape are major problems within the federal government.
Full article: US DAILY BRIEF
US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Heavy March 10Y Risk Reversals
Jan-27 13:16
Heavier SOFR & Treasury option flow overnight, large risk Mar'25 10Y reversal taking advantage of the rally in underlying futures to hedge massive 108.5 call position build over the last couple weeks. Rally in underlying futures spurred by sell-off in tech sector on China's DeepSeek AI startup as competitor to varios US AIs. Bid sees projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gaining traction vs. late Friday (*) levels as follows: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-0.1bp), Mar'25 at -9.7bp (-6.9bp), May'25 at -17.4bp (-13.6bp), Jun'25 at -31.1bp (-24.7bp), Jul'25 at -35.7bp (-28.6bp).
- Treasury Options:
- Block/screen, +70,000 TYH5 108.5/110.5 put over risk reversals, 17 net vs.109-03/0.60% (+33k at 15/screen) reminder - nice hedge for some acct that bought some +75,000 TYH5 108.5 calls Friday at 41 ref 108-14.5, adding to +100k+ from 27-29 on Jan 14, just prior to CPI-tied bounce in underlying).
- 1,500 USH5 107/109/111 put flys ref 114-17
- 4,000 FVJ5 108 calls, 11.5 ref 106-22
- 4,000 FVH5 106.5/107.5 call spds
- 10,000 FVH5 107.5/108.5/109.5 call flys ref 106-17.5
- +17,500 wk5 TY 110 calls, 6-10
- 3,350 wk1 TY 107/107.5 put spds ref 109-03
- SOFR Options:
- 5,700 SFRG5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys ref 95.805
- 13,000 0QH5 95.50 puts ref 96.16
- 2,000 0QH5 96.06/96.18/96.50 broken put flys ref 96.155
- 4,000 SFRH5 95.87/95.93 call spds ref 95.815
- Block/screen 6,000 SFRG5 95.68/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors, 2.75-3.0
- 3,000 SFRH5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put trees
- +6,250 SFRH5 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys, 2.25 ref 95.805
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.62 call spds, 7.5 ref 96.065
- 1,500 SFRZ5 96.00 puts ref 96.115
- 1,500 SFRM5 96.12/96.37/96.68 broken call trees ref 95.955
