UKRAINE: Zelenskyy Indicates He Needs Clarity From Trump On Security Assurances

• 10,000 SFRU5 96.37/96.62 call spds 4.5 ref 96.06 at 0824:57ET

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has invited US President Donald Trump to address a joint session of Congress on March 14.
• House Republicans are gathered in Florida this week to discuss strategy for legislating Trump’s agenda through a fractious Republican majority in the lower chamber. Trump is expected to deliver a keynote address to the retreat at 17:00 ET 22:00 GMT.
• Johnson will hope that, by the end of the week, he has a workable framework in place for a single reconciliation bill.
• Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, will have his Senate nomination hearing on Wednesday.
• Trump offered a preview of his muscular foreign policy and trade strategy in a standoff with Colombian President Gustavo Petro.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio held his first call with his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
• Markets and policymakers are bracing for the implications of a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that could disrupt US dominance of the sector.
• The Kremlin is waiting for the White House to OK a call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• The Pentagon is readying more than 5,000 warfighting troops for deployment to the southern border.
• Trump disrupted diplomacy in the Middle East, suggesting that Jordan and Egypt should accept over a million refugees from Gaza.
• Poll of the Day: Voters believe corruption, inefficiency, and red tape are major problems within the federal government.

Full article: US DAILY BRIEF

Heavier SOFR & Treasury option flow overnight, large risk Mar'25 10Y reversal taking advantage of the rally in underlying futures to hedge massive 108.5 call position build over the last couple weeks. Rally in underlying futures spurred by sell-off in tech sector on China's DeepSeek AI startup as competitor to varios US AIs. Bid sees projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gaining traction vs. late Friday (*) levels as follows: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-0.1bp), Mar'25 at -9.7bp (-6.9bp), May'25 at -17.4bp (-13.6bp), Jun'25 at -31.1bp (-24.7bp), Jul'25 at -35.7bp (-28.6bp).

• Treasury Options:
  • Block/screen, +70,000 TYH5 108.5/110.5 put over risk reversals, 17 net vs.109-03/0.60% (+33k at 15/screen) reminder - nice hedge for some acct that bought some +75,000 TYH5 108.5 calls Friday at 41 ref 108-14.5, adding to +100k+ from 27-29 on Jan 14, just prior to CPI-tied bounce in underlying).
  • 1,500 USH5 107/109/111 put flys ref 114-17
  • 4,000 FVJ5 108 calls, 11.5 ref 106-22
  • 4,000 FVH5 106.5/107.5 call spds
  • 10,000 FVH5 107.5/108.5/109.5 call flys ref 106-17.5
  • +17,500 wk5 TY 110 calls, 6-10
  • 3,350 wk1 TY 107/107.5 put spds ref 109-03
• SOFR Options:
  • 5,700 SFRG5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys ref 95.805
  • 13,000 0QH5 95.50 puts ref 96.16
  • 2,000 0QH5 96.06/96.18/96.50 broken put flys ref 96.155
  • 4,000 SFRH5 95.87/95.93 call spds ref 95.815
  • Block/screen 6,000 SFRG5 95.68/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors, 2.75-3.0
  • 3,000 SFRH5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put trees
  • +6,250 SFRH5 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys, 2.25 ref 95.805
  • +5,000 SFRU5 96.25/96.62 call spds, 7.5 ref 96.065
  • 1,500 SFRZ5 96.00 puts ref 96.115
  • 1,500 SFRM5 96.12/96.37/96.68 broken call trees ref 95.955