UKRAINE: Zelenskyy-Vance Meeting Postponed To 1700CET As Minerals Draft Assessed
Reuters reports that according to a source in the Ukrainian delegation at the Munich Security Conference, the sideline meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Vice President JD Vance has been postponed until 1700CET (1100ET/1600GMT).
- The delay comes a short time after reports claim that Ukraine has submitted a draft minerals agreement that it has submitted to the US for review. The US sid is said to have asked until later this afternoon to work on the agreement, which may be one of the explanations for the delay to the Zelenskyy-Vance meeting.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented Zelenskyy with the initial draft minerals agreement during their meeting in Kyiv earlier this week, with Bessent claiming the agreement was included in a “larger peace deal that Trump has in mind” that would see “a long-term security shield” for Ukraine in place.
- US President Donald Trump has touted a rare earths deal as potentially providing a major windfall for the US economy. However, as Foreign Policy notes, "[Ukraine] does not currently produce rare earths, nor has it produced rare earths in recent decades, [...], and We Build Ukraine, a Kyiv-based think tank, estimates that Russia’s occupation has rendered 40 percent of Ukraine’s metallic mineral riches inaccessible."
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JPY: USDJPY hovers at session low
- USDJPY still trades near its intraday low of 156.71, lower Yields have been somewhat supportive of the Yen, but still worth noting that despite the lower US 10yr Yield, it still hasn't challenged Yesterday's low of 4.7471%.
- Initial resistance in TYH5 is at 107.18+, Yesterday's high.
- For the USDJPY, next support is all the way down to 156.02 (31st Dec low).
COMMODITIES: Recent Gains in Gold Appear Technically Corrective, For Now
The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent highs. The stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.15. This average is seen as a key short-term support. Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2644.3, the 50-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.03 or -0.04% at $77.46
- Natural Gas down $0.01 or -0.2% at $3.96
- Gold spot up $9.39 or +0.35% at $2686.8
- Copper down $0.85 or -0.2% at $433.5
- Silver up $0.21 or +0.72% at $30.1135
- Platinum up $1.49 or +0.16% at $943.78
EQUITIES: Bear Threat in E-Mini S&P Remains Present
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support is at 4939.33, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, a Fibonacci projection. A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirmed the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been breached. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 29.72 pts or -0.08% at 38444.58 and the TOPIX ended 8.23 pts higher or +0.31% at 2690.81.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 13.823 pts or -0.43% at 3227.117 and the HANG SENG ended 66.29 pts higher or +0.34% at 19286.07.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 93.14 pts or +0.46% at 20364.47, FTSE 100 higher by 57.16 pts or +0.7% at 8258.33, CAC 40 up 3.61 pts or +0.05% at 7427.28 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 7.78 pts or +0.16% at 4988.25.
- Dow Jones mini up 50 pts or +0.12% at 42802, S&P 500 mini up 5 pts or +0.09% at 5887.25, NASDAQ mini up 32.5 pts or +0.16% at 20951.75.
